The country risk falls again and approaches the floor of 500 points with the push of the increase in reserves

The JP Morgan indicator that measures the excess cost of Argentine debt is located this Monday is 517 basis points and thus approaches the floor of 500 points, the limit that country risk must pierce so that the economic team can plan the return to global debt markets.

With a country risk in the area of ​​400/450 points, Argentina could place debt in global markets and thus refinance part of the maturities that it must face throughout these years, which reach US$18 billion. As long as this does not happen, the government will have to use the dollar deposits that the Treasury has to pay the maturities, which indirectly affects the reserves.

In this round, Argentine bonds in dollars under foreign law rise between 0.3% and 1%, which improves financing prospects. The 517 points marked by the country risk are the lowest record since 2018. It is even below the previous floor of Javier Milei’s management, which had been 560 points on January 9 of last year.

In mid-December last year, the country risk broke through 600 points and since then it has moved in a range of between 580 and 550 points. In the last four wheels the indicator is going down, in search of a new floor.

What change would make the country risk have a sustained decrease? Analysts say that the key is in the accumulation of reserves that the Central Bank has been showing, which so far in January it bought US$975 millionwhile maintaining reserves above the US$45 billion since last week.

“The market’s focus will continue to be on the BCRA’s ability to sustain this rate of accumulation. Buying almost US$1 billion in less than a month is a very positive sign and explains why many investors who were in wait and see They began to “pay” Global, taking the country risk to a minimum,” they explain from Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI).

Looking ahead to the next rounds, everything indicates that the supply of dollars will continue to grow while demand remains stable.

“The conditions for this dynamic to continue seem favorable: agriculture maintains a liquidation rate of US$ 85 million daily in January and corporate issues would continue to provide a flow of supply, with US$2.8 billion already settled and others US$ 3.600 millones yet to be entered (as of 01/16) according to the latest BCRA presentation,” details PPI.

In the exchange segment, the retail dollar advanced ten pesos in Banco Nación and is sold at $ 1.465 Financial dollars remain stable, with the MEP at $ 1.471 and the cash with liquid in $ 1.516.

The Merval rises 2% and Argentine shares listed in New York move mostly upward, led by BBVA with 8, Central Puerto with 5.4% and Supervielle 5.4%.