The agency S&P Global maintains the rating dell’Italia a BBB+ and raise theoutlook stable to positiverewarding the “fiscal resilience” and the perspective of gradual reduction of net debtwith the estimate of a slow trend of decline in public debt in 2028.
The agency’s analysis highlights how Italy has demonstrated “resilience” in the face of uncertainty related to trade tariffs imposed by the USrecording net current account surpluses who support the private wealthand improvements in credit position towards foreign countries.
The recovery of the Italian budget
“Il consolidation of the Italian budget he is on the right track. We expect the budget deficit will drop marginally to 2.9% of GDP in 2026from 3.0% estimated for 2025, as the extraordinary taxes on banks and insurance companiesstricter enforcement of VAT and changes to the taxation of short-term rentals will more than offset the income tax cuts for average incomes, the reduction of social security contributions paid by employers and the support for low incomes“, analyzes the agency.
Positive assessments from rating agencies
The phase therefore continues positive assessments of Italian public finances on the part of rating agencies started last year. Always in April 2025 S&P had raised his opinion on Italy, identifying “the improvement of economic reserves“, in the following months. The rating was followed by Moodys, which last November had improved the rating after 23 years advancing it to Baa2. Also Fitch in the autumn it raised its rating to BBB with a stable outlook.
“Major’s trajectory credibility towards Italy knows no stops. Work pays”, comments the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti.
S&P economic growth estimates
S&P estimates that the economic growth of Italy should “increase to approximately lo 0.8% in 2026compared to the 0.5% estimated for 2025″, with “the acceleration of the execution of EU-funded projects” and the increase of real incomes. The expectation is that the GDP growth stabilize around 0.8% in 2027-2028, as the commercial pressuresexcept one more commercial shock and despite the slowdown of public investments.
Deficit and public debt: prospects
Il Italy’s nominal public deficit “should fall below 3% of GDP in 2026and then reduce only marginally”. Although the cash outflows linked to the Superbonus will continue to weigh on the cash balance until 2026-2028, their impact is gradually easing and “is expected to disappear by 2028-2029”. Consequently, the high Italian public debtsuperior to 3 trillion,” is expected to increase until 2027, and then gradually reduce“.
The positive outlook reflect the expectation that, despite persistent uncertainty in the international tradeil Italian private sector continue “to support the current account surplus“. While the public sector should gradually reduce his net debt“, starting a “slow trend of decline in public debt in 2028“.
Political risks according to S&P
Between the risks identified by S&Pthe possible growth of internal political conflict to the majority as the next ones approach political elections. “It is probable that the political competitionboth within the government coalition that between opposition partiesintensify in view of general elections. We anticipate that this will limit thepolitical ambition and the scope of important structural reforms“. While “it is unlikely that the 2026 municipal elections materially influence national politics.”