The Bnk and Bank of England fixes taxes

On Thursday 4 February both the Bcebe it Bank of England to make the first decision monetary policy of 2026, analysts expect both central institutions to leave the unchanged rates. Last week also Fed decided to keep rates unchanged, after three consecutive downward adjustments, but the novelty the main one was the US administration’s choice of Donald Trump to indicate Kevin Warsh as next central bank leadership upon the expiration of Jerome Powell’s term.

The first consequence of the appointment was a drastic one drop in the price of gold and silverafter months of rally. “His hawkish record as Fed governor suggests he will be less inclined to drastic cuts than other candidates like Hassett or Reider. Furthermore, his historic defense ofautonomy of the central bank could reassure the markets on theindependence of the institute“, comments Ebury in his analysis.

Rates stuck at 2% for the ECB

The focus of the board della Bce it could be thesurge in the euro. The driver of this rise in 2025, rather than the strength of the single currency, was the weakness of the greenback in the last year, penalized by uncertainties about US tariff policies and from doubts aboutindependence of the Fed. On rates, however, it seems obvious that they will remain stable at 2% for the fifth consecutive session. To see new cuts you may have to wait until the second one half of the year. Much will depend on international context and give them geopolitical turbulence. “We expect the ECB to maintain the unchanged monetary policy at the February 5 meeting, leaving the deposit rate at 2.0% and confirming the meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach”, the prediction of Nadia Gharbi, Senior Economist at Pictet Wealth Management. “It is a foregone conclusion that the ECB will confirm the current rates. The President Lagarde will probably reiterate that monetary policy is balanced, effectively excluding new cuts in the short term. All eyes will be on any comments regarding the recent strengthening of the eurobut Lagarde is unlikely to actively intervene to try to weaken the currency at this time,” comments Ebury.

The position of the Bank of England

Even the Bank of England appears oriented towards maintaining its own reference rate at 3.75%after four downward adjustments made last year, only a minority of commentators hypothesize the possibility which will drop to 3.50%. The Monetary Policy CommitteeGoldman Sachs estimates, “has a high chance to maintain the Bank Rate al 3,75% in the meeting, as recent communications have signaled caution on the pace of further cuts and the latest data has been mixed.” While in the Barclays analysis: “The December communication expressed a propensity to slow down the pace of cuts as the discount rate approaches the neutralitywe believe that the majority of MPC members will be in favor of a continuation.” As for the future, Sanjay Raja, chief economist of Deutsche Bank in the United Kingdom, analyzes that “with theeconomy on a firmer footing than expected, the push to accelerate i. is likely rate cuts be less”.