Businesses worry less about export orders at the beginning of the year

“Our orders are still running steadily until the second quarter,” said Mr. Tran Lam Son, Founder of Thien Minh Furniture. This furniture manufacturer said it is entering 2026 with a “not worried” mentality about the market.

Mr. Phung Quoc Man, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Handicraft and Wood Processing Association (Hawa) – which accounts for half of the country’s wooden furniture businesses – said that the majority of members are in average to good condition, with no panic because of the decline in orders as before. “Many businesses have orders for the first quarter and early second quarter, some also have orders until May,” Mr. Man said.

Similarly, according to the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (Vitas), orders for the first quarter have been negotiated and many businesses are negotiating orders for the second quarter.

The purchasing managers index (PMI) report recently released by S&P Global said that Vietnamese manufacturers recorded the number of new orders increasing at a faster rate than in December, thanks to improved customer demand. In particular, export orders have increased again, after decreasing at the end of 2025.

The business said it has received new orders from other Asian economies such as India. Mr. Andrew Harker, Economic Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, assessed that Vietnam’s manufacturing industry has had a solid start. “Continuing the growth momentum accumulated until the end of 2025, the manufacturing industry has good prospects for a successful 2026,” Mr. Andrew commented.

According to the US data analysis firm, business confidence in Vietnam’s manufacturing industry has reached its highest level in 22 months. Companies are increasing production and hiring more people. Employment increased for the fourth consecutive month, the fastest pace since June 2024.

At the economic engine, Ho Chi Minh City Statistics said the labor index in January improved, increasing by 1.3% over the previous month and 1.1% over the same period in 2025. Some industries recorded increases such as electricity – electronics production; motor vehicles; computer…

However, challenges are still present. Mr. Andrew Harker pointed out the continued scarcity of raw materials supply. Businesses responded by increasing selling prices more strongly in the past month.

“Demand remains resilient to these pressures, but we will need to keep an eye out for any signs of weakness in new orders in the coming months,” he said. Mr. Tran Lam Son also predicted that businesses in the wood furniture industry may have difficulty recruiting labor and raw materials.

Non-tariff barriers are also an issue. The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) said that the US Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) and Certificate of Acceptability (COA) are gradually revealing their impact, affecting the export of tuna and other seafood species.

Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh, Public Policy Lecturer, Fulbright University Vietnam, forecasts that this year’s exports may slow down compared to 2025’s result of 17%. In the most recent report, UOB had the same opinion, citing the end of the front-loading period and the uncertainty of US tax policy.

The US was Vietnam’s largest market last year, with a turnover of more than 153.1 billion USD, an increase of 28.1% compared to 2024, according to the Customs Department. According to Mr. Thanh, the most optimistic scenario is that exports to the US will neither increase nor decrease compared to 2025. But there is a risk of turnover decreasing due to high inventories in the US.

Experts and businesses believe that it is necessary to increase the search for motivation in other markets. According to Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh, the Chinese market is promising thanks to increasing household income.

Seafood, for example, exports to mainland China and Hong Kong in January increased by 28.7% while to the US decreased by 10%. According to VASEP, the situation shows that the growth driver currently depends heavily on the Asian market. Besides China, Japan and Southeast Asia also increased their purchases of Vietnamese seafood, 21.3% and 32.2% respectively.

With interior wood, Hawa Chairman Phung Quoc Man said that businesses can increase their use of recently opened markets such as the Middle East and India. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s postponement of tax increases on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and bathroom cabinets to 2027 gives businesses another year to prepare appropriate pricing plans.