“Something big is on the way”: the site that tries to predict when there will be an attack in Iran

StrikeRadar was developed by Jonathan Beck, an Israeli high-tech product manager, and seeks to make a strategic monitoring tool based on open information available to the public. The site presents a probability index for a military conflict that is updated throughout the day according to the combination of different data sources, but emphasizes that this is an experimental information project and not an intelligence forecast.

StrikeRadar’s system considers indications such as unusual movements of civilian and military aircraft, news reports from international sources, weather conditions in the area, and other data that appears on the dashboard. Some signals are continuously updated, while others may be missing or unavailable at certain moments.

“Something big is on the way”

Yesterday Beck wrote in a post on LinkedIn that in his eyes the meaning is not only in the percentage itself, but in the speed with which it changes. “A jump from 8% to 22% in less than 6 hours,” he wrote. “On the face of it, 22% is still ‘Low Risk’, but what is important is not the absolute number, but the rate of change. This is a jump of 175% from this morning’s low.” According to him, the increase was not due to a single signal but to a combination of several indices that appeared at the same time. Among other things, he noted a “jump from 0 to 40” in the movement of refueling planes, an increase in the news index from 10 to 38, and weather conditions that received a score of 100 as “optimal conditions for an attack.”

Beck added that at the same time, public interest in the site also skyrocketed. “The number of radar viewers increased from 3,600 to almost 6,500 within three hours,” he wrote, emphasizing: “The goal is not to guess what will happen, but simply to connect the dots in real time.” He signed the post with a gut feeling that “something big is on the way”.

StrikeRadar is part of a wider wave of platforms that try to present to the public real-time metrics based on open data. Unlike prediction markets like Polymarket, where the probabilities are derived from users’ bets, the site is based on a combination of data from different sources and algorithms that update the score throughout the day. The site itself states that this is an experimental project for informational purposes only, and not an official forecast.