The Central Bank faces the payment of US$ 1,000 million in bonds with companies and importers

10 days ago, investors received the payment notice starting in the next few hours. He himself will fall in the midst of the negotiations that an Argentine mission in Washington has been maintaining since last week with the Fund Monetary to unlock a disbursement of US$ 1,000 million, something that could be completed at the end of the month or in April, despite the failure to meet the reserve goal

The Government already canceled a US$1 billion commitment from Bopreal 2026 Series 3 in December. The current commitment represents 40% of the acquired reserves since the beginning of the year for US$ 2.6 billion. Its impact on the stock of currencies will depend on the amount that investors maintain in the financial system.

Javier Milei’s management launched these debt securities in dollars at the end of 2023. It was to sort out the commercial debt accumulated by importers and companies with withheld dividendswithout affecting reserves in the short term. This made it possible to postpone the outflow of dollars and avoid an exchange shock, although it also served to absorb pesos.

Many companies had pending payments due to the impossibility of accessing the official exchange market due to exchange restrictions, some in force today. Instead of giving them dollars right away, The Central Bank offered them this bonus in dollars in exchange for pesos. And in March 2024, it launched Series 3 for up to $3 billion.

Bopreal 2026 (BPY26) was issued with a coupon of 3% annual interest and three quarterly payments from November 2025 to May 2026. It went on the market with a price of $97,000 and last October it was sold for $154,000, amid electoral tensions. Today, it is trading at $50,000, almost half of its initial value.

According to data from the Central Bank as of September 30, 2025, the external debt of the private sector totaled US$ 116,847 million, a quarterly increase of US$ 7,300 million, largely due to the increase in commercial debt and to a lesser extent due to financial liabilities. The debt for imports of goods was the most important, with a stock of US$ 39,055 million.

The Central Bank continues to buy reserves and the Treasury placed US$250 million with a new dollar bond last week at a rate of less than 6% annually. The Government has to pay US$ 14,000 million in the remainder of 2026, and this week it said that it will seek US$ 2,000 million with the issuance of debtwith an eye on private deposits in foreign currency.

However, the country risk – which had pierced the floor of 500 points at the end of January – escalated again and closed the week at 560 basis points, distancing Argentina from returning to global debt markets. The weakness of economic activity sows doubts about the margin to continue applying adjustment policies and sustain openness of imports with a dollar perceived as “cheap.”

“The offer that seems to prevail is the liquidation of Negotiable Obligations from the private sector (led by energy companies) and issues in dollars from some provinces. The dynamic is similar to the beginning of last year, when there was a significant reversal of flows in the month of March. The Government is excited to reach the harvest with this financial calm“Vectorial noted.

The question is whether agro-exporters will liquidate their harvest with an exchange rate that looks close to minimums ($ 1,397) and withholdings of 24% for soybeansafter having lowered them to 0% in last year’s electoral campaign. Luis Caputo told them in recent days that “there is no room” to reduce them again.