Race against the clock: the US is trying to reach a decision before the ammunition runs out

Since Saturday, the US and its allies have been conducting a wide-scale attack on leadership and military targets in Iran, which include missile launchers, drones and airports. A senior official clarified that one of the main reasons for the pre-emptive strike by the US and Israel is the desire to paralyze Tehran’s ability to react, before the available inventory of interceptors reaches its limit. And this, while at this stage it is not yet clear how long the attacks will last. “The heavy and precise bombings will continue without interruption throughout the week, or as long as it takes to achieve our goal of peace in the Middle East and in the entire world!”, Trump posted on social media.

It seems that the Iranian response on Saturday was less orderly than the one seen at the base with Kelabi, when more than 500 missiles were fired alongside heavy drone strikes. The Israeli announcement of the death of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in an airstrike, may hasten the end. The US Central Command clarified that the forces were able to successfully defend themselves against hundreds of launches, but admitted that some of the missiles hit in their goals, mainly in the Gulf countries adjacent to Iran. The confrontation is far from over, and the exchange of blows between the US, Israel and Iran is expected to continue in the coming days as well.

The stock is getting smaller and smaller

“One of the challenges is that the rate of use of interceptors is much faster than their production and replacement capacity,” explains Kelly Greco, a senior at the Stimson Research Center and a former lecturer at the US Air Force Command College. According to her, the stock may be depleted in a very short time given the intensity of the conflict.

As part of the Biden administration’s efforts to protect Israel from Iran, the THAAD system was deployed in Israel in 2024 along with American forces operating it. Similar systems were also deployed in Jordan, alongside a high concentration of fighter jets. Now, one of the main concerns in the Pentagon is maintaining a stock of interceptors in other hot spots in the world, such as South Korea and Guam, where the systems are placed to deter North Korea and China.

At the same time, the Pentagon is working to quickly replenish the inventory of Patriot missiles and the “Standard” (SM-3) missiles, which are used to defend against Iranian threats. While the Patriot missiles are designed to thwart low-flying threats, the SM-3 interceptors have the unique ability to intercept ballistic missiles even before they enter the atmosphere.

Air defense interceptors are not the only munitions whose stocks are dwindling. The U.S. also makes extensive use of Tomahawk cruise missiles, along with precision aerial weaponry. This intense activity comes directly after last year’s American campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. “The Trump administration fired Tomahawk missiles at an extraordinary rate in operations around the world, against Iran and the Houthis, as well as in Nigeria at Christmas,” said Beka Wasser, a senior research fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

The Pentagon’s dilemma

These weapons are well suited for attacking infrastructure and are expected to be very necessary in the first weeks of a potential conflict with China. “When we conduct war simulations, Tomahawk missiles are among the first to run out in the first week of a conflict between the US and China,” explains Becca Wasser. According to her, in order to compensate for the apparent shortage, the Pentagon will be required to double the pace of procurement and production.

It appears that the ongoing campaign against Iran does not at this stage include American long-range anti-ship missiles – a type of ammunition that the US would need in the event of a conflict with China. One of the developments that may ease the burden on the supply of American offensive ammunition is the involvement of the IDF, which it claims is the one that carried out the attacks against Iran’s leadership.

Israel also has serious concerns regarding the ammunition stockpile. An American source points out that there is still a shortage of Arrow 3 interceptors, as well as ballistic missiles. Israel used this weapon to destroy Iranian missile launchers last summer and to attack Hamas leaders in Qatar last year. Yonatan Konrikos, former IDF spokesman and a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, expresses surprise at the relatively small number of missiles the Iranians have managed to fire so far in the current campaign.

The US has already transferred a large supply of missiles and interceptors to the region, including from partner countries that hold stocks. However, an American official clarifies that if the fighting continues and more interceptors are required, the Pentagon will be forced to make a fateful decision: whether to use the stockpile of ammunition stationed in the Pacific Ocean.