The war with Iran benefits and hurts Russia – Valtonen assesses the consequences for Finland

Foreign minister Elina Valtonen (kok) says that Finland is prepared for the fact that instability in the Middle East will continue for a long time.

The foreign minister commented on the situation to journalists via remote connection after participating in the informal ministerial meeting of the Council of the Baltic Sea States in Warsaw.

Valtonen admitted that Finland does not have an accurate picture of what the US’s goal in the war is.

“We don’t have any clear view of what the actual objective of the United States in this war is,” he said.

Valtonen listed some of the US’s known goals, such as destroying Iran’s missiles and nuclear preparations and changing the regime. However, the foreign minister estimates that it is likely that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard will not be able to be overthrown.

“Many international colleagues consider it unlikely that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard would simply fall like that. Iran’s Ayatollah is a religious leader who has power in Shia Muslim communities in other countries as well,” Valtonen said.

“We do not support war”

According to Valtonen, the role of the EU and Finland in the Iran conflict is to appeal to the parties and promote diplomacy.

The foreign minister reminded that “we did not start the war, and we do not support it”.

At the request of Kauppalehti, the foreign minister also listed the advantages and disadvantages of the Iran war for Russia.

According to Valtonen, one of the benefits of the war is that Iran has been Russia’s strategic partner, and supplied airplanes and missiles to Russia’s war of aggression. Now Iran uses them themselves, moreover, they have been destroyed during the US military actions, when the weapons are away from punishing Ukraine.

“Whatever happens, a weakened Iran is not good news for Russia,” Valtonen said.

According to the minister, it is bad for Finnish consumers, business and the world economy that energy prices are rising. In addition, with the war, the price of Russian crude oil will rise, allowing it to better finance the destruction of Ukraine.

According to the ministers of the Baltic Sea countries, the focus of supporting Ukraine is continuous support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia.

Kauppalehti asked Valtones if Ukraine can be a member of the EU already next year, like the president Volodymyr Zelenskyi has hoped.

“Getting full membership requires meeting (the EU’s) criteria, and that is also in Finland’s strong interest. It’s hard to say whether it will be ready next year,” Valtonen answered.

Did the State Department slow down?

Valtonen also told about the decision of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to organize a repatriation flight for Finns via Oman. According to some, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has acted slowly in organizing the return flight, considering that the escalation of the conflict has been palpable for some time.

According to Valtonen, it’s not about slowness.

“For technical reasons, the arrangements will take some time,” Valtonen said and pointed to the fact that the airspaces of several countries have been closed.

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs prepares many things all the time. But you can’t know in advance what will strike, where and when. The strength of Iran’s counterstrikes has surprised me,” Valtonen said.