Information from KL: The Commission has a secret about Ukraine that it does not want to share

Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán has been furious with Ukraine in recent days for blocking the flow of Russian oil through the Družba pipeline to Hungary.

The Russian strikes broke the pipeline on the Ukrainian side, but according to Orbán, the pipeline is fine, and it’s just that Ukraine doesn’t want Russian oil to end up in Hungary.

Orbán has shown satellite images to support his claims and demanded an independent pipeline inspection from the EU. The proposal has also been supported by some EU countries.

Ukraine has so far not agreed to the inspections. The country has many reasons to keep the pipeline carrying Russian oil closed. First, keeping the pipeline closed will increase energy costs in Hungary, which is holding elections next month. Ukraine hopes that the rise in energy costs would lead to the election of a leader more sympathetic to Orbán in Hungary: Orbán has announced that he will block Ukraine’s EU membership. In addition, he pledges the progress of the 90 billion euro support loan for Ukraine and the acceptance of new sanctions against Russia.

Ukraine has absolutely no interest in fattening Russia’s coffers by allowing oil to flow along the Druzhba.

Ukraine also has hopes in the direction of the EU. The country wants to become a member of the EU already next year. In addition, the president Volodymyr Zelenskyi has linked the pipeline issue to the peace negotiations. He has stressed that the pipeline was destroyed by the Russians, and a ceasefire is needed to fix it.

According to Kauppalehti, the commission knows that Hungary is right. However, the Commission does not want to bring the matter to the public, so that it does not appear that the EU is supporting the restoration of oil flows that benefit Russia. That’s why they are trying to resolve the situation quietly behind the scenes.

On Tuesday, the president of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen and President Zelenskyi discussed the matter by phone. The official statement said that they focused on common priorities in the discussion: to quickly conclude the approval of the bailout loan for Ukraine and to finalize the 20th sanctions package against Russia.

The progress of both of these depends on Hungary and the opening of the Družba pipeline. From the Commission’s point of view, the situation is complicated by the fact that Hungary has the right to use the Adria oil pipeline through Croatia based on the state of emergency law.

The pipeline runs through Croatia to Hungary and Slovakia. Normally Adria does not transport Russian oil, but Hungary and Slovakia have insisted that it should be possible to bring Russian oil through it by sea if Družba is cut.

Opening the Adria pipeline would mean that Russian oil could also flow more widely to the countries of the Western Balkans, such as Serbia, Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. According to information from Kauppalehti, the commission fears that the dispute over Russian oil will spread more widely to the Western Balkans, which is by no means wanted.

The Commission has tried to ease Ukraine’s pain by trying to promote a model where Ukraine could get some kind of EU “light membership” in an accelerated schedule, but so far the EU member states have been of the position that the applicant countries – including Ukraine – must meet the normal membership conditions.

The situation was described on Wednesday by the foreign minister Elina Valtonen (kok) by saying that “EU membership is not a loyalty card that can be slipped into a wallet”, but must be based on fulfilling the EU membership criteria.

The situation between the Commission, Ukraine and Hungary is now like a staring game, waiting to see who will blink and give in first.