Despite the “super campaign” for grains, the dollar income from the field would not grow this year

According to projections of the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR), the cereal and oilseed sector would liquidate in the Free Exchange Market (MLC) US$34,530 millionan amount timidly lower than that recorded in 2025, when the complex contributed US$34.6 billion, according to data from the Central Bank.

However, it is worth remembering that during the first months of last year the so-called “blended dollar”which allowed 20% of exports to be settled at the financial exchange rate, the foreign exchange received reached US$36,160 million last year.

But beyond this last number, the truth is that, in a context of low international prices y extreme volatility in the market due to the war in the Middle East, the good production of grains makes the liquidation remains at levels similar to those of 2025.

Furthermore, part of the interannual variation is explained by commercial factors: the advance of settlements during September of last year —when the temporary elimination of export duties was in effect—generated an extraordinary income of dollars that influences the comparison with 2026.

Regarding the projected volume of grain production, the BCR estimated that 160 million tons, which would consolidate a marked rebound in agricultural supply, especially in wheat, which reached a record of 29.5 million tons, while barley added 5.6 million tons.

“These numbers allowed improve prospects of the sector after recent years marked by droughts and lower yields,” indicated the BCR.

The projections for the large harvest also reinforce the favorable outlook. He corn is set to reach a historical maximum of 62 million tons, while the sunflower could achieve 6.6 million tons, the highest volume of the century for that crop.

In the case of the militaryproduction would be around 48 million tons, a level lower than some historical records. However, this reduction responds mainly to a smaller planted area, since the projected yields are above those obtained in the last season.

This jump in production would have a direct impact on the external front, highlighted the stock exchange entity, since exports of grains and derivatives could reach 113 million tonsan unprecedented volume that would exceed the previous record registered in the 2018/19 campaign by almost 10 million tons.

In parallel, the sector’s contribution to the treasury via withholdings would remain practically stable. For 2026, a collection of US$4.65 billion in terms of export duties considering the six main agricultural complexes: soybeans, corn, wheat, sorghum, barley and sunflower.

The stability in collection is explained because the recent reduction of rates for several products offsets the effect of the registration of external sales without withholdings in September 2025.

Under the assumption that the rates announced at the beginning of December are maintained throughout the year, the total contribution of the countryside for this tax would remain at similar levels to those of 2025.

When analyzing the contribution by production complex, the military It would continue to be the main tax taxpayer with US$ 3,420 million, although with a slight year-on-year drop of 6%; he corn would occupy second place with US$ 720 million, which would imply a growth of 30% compared to 2025, followed by wheat with US$ 300 million (+21%).

The greatest relative jump would occur in the complex sunflowerwhose contribution is estimated at US$ 115 million, driven by higher exported volumes and better international prices, which would represent an increase of 60% year-on-year.