Collapse of tourism in Dubai after the attack on February 28, the first calculations are made

Empty hotels, deserted beachesminimal turnout inshopping mall. It’s thetourism to dubaione of the excellent victims of the “Roaring Lion” operation. Three weeks after the start ofconflictwe begin to do the math. Thetourism sectorwhich was breaking records just a few months ago, is now progressing at a slower pace; theflights to and from the countryare limited, as the airspace situation in the region remains unstable. Last year, the emirate welcomed19.59 million international visitorsits third consecutive record-breaking year, with average hotel occupancy above 80% and tourism accounting for more than a tenth ofPil. Even thereal estate priceslast month they had risen by 60%. Then the ‘dream’ was shattered on the first night of the conflict, that is, February 28th when adroneit hitPalm Jumeirah a Dubainear the luxury resort The Fairmont.

L’Dubai International Airportwhich last year had recorded its busiest year ever with95.2 million passengerssurpassing every other airport in the world for international traffic and recording an average of around 260,000 travelers per day, it was first closed and then resumed few operational flights. And so in the first week of the conflict alone, more than 1,000 were cancelled80,000 bookingsin Dubai alone. According to data fromLighthouse Intelligencereported by the FT, accommodation occupancy has fallen from an average of 90% in high season to around 16%. The numbers also droppedprices for April and May. And the hoteliers’ hope also seems to have fallen for an increase in demand due to the Eid holiday, which celebrates the end of the fasting month of Ramadan and which falls tomorrow. Despite everything, iDubai officialsthey believe that therestoration of flightswas a fundamental step to support theeconomy during the conflict.

Meanwhile, somecompaniesthey try to take cover. The groupSunset Hospitalitybased in Dubai, owner of restaurants, bars and fitness centers in theUnited Arab Emiratesis considering “temporarily scaling back” operations in some locations, taking “short-term measures related toworkforce” and creating “more flexible ways of working,” said group president and CEO Antonio Gonzalez. Some chains are sending thestaff in Europeto work at affiliated facilities during the summer. Theflexible labor marketof the United Arab Emirates, which allows employers to easily terminate and modify employment contracts, allows companies to preserveliquidityand sustain operations over long periods of timedecline in demandas seen during the pandemic and the 2009 Dubai debt crisis. But imigrant workersin the United Arab Emirates are already economically vulnerable, say thehuman rights groupsand often go into debt to pay the expenses ofillegal recruitmenta phenomenon that the United Arab Emirates says it wants to prevent. The possibility ofrecovery of the sectorit will depend on the end of the war and the nature of relations with Iran in the aftermath.

The recovery of tourism and alternative destinations

I Dubai officialsthey hope the external nature of the threat will allow the sector to recover more quickly than other destinations, such as Egypt and Tunisia, which have faceddemand shockfollowing terrorist incidents. Meanwhile, ipotential touriststhey look elsewhere. According to what was reported to the BBC bytravel agenciesi British visitorsthey are changing theEaster travel reservationsavoiding Dubai, causing a surge in demand towards“reassuring” destinations. Those towards are increasingPortugal, Italia e Spainas well as inCaribbeana Mauritius e United States. Neil Swanson, managing director of TUI UK and Ireland, reported that “they are opting forfamiliar and easily reachable destinations” with particularly strong demand for flights to the Caribbean, especially theDominican Republic e la Jamaicaas wellPhuketin Thailand, andGoain India. In Europe, the predilection for much loved and popular destinations stands out: theItaliaand in particular theTuscanygoes without saying.