The experts: "the oil price war is still long"

The Impennata of theoil priceshas become one of theIran’s most powerful weapons nella war against the United States and Israel. An Iranian propaganda video that went viral this week offered an insight into howTeheranis claiming victory on the front ofoil market.

For oil there are fears of skyrocketing prices and collapse in sales

In the video seven armed patrol boats appear heading at full speed towards thePETROLEUMto block navigation in theStrait of Hormuz. Then the images of thefinancial investorswho cry while ioil prices skyrocket e dei Arab producerswho desperately watch thecollapse in crude oil sales.

“I energy marketshave become one of the main onesbattlefields of the conflict” Geoffrey Pyatt, former White House energy advisor, explains to the Financial Times.

“L’Iranis clearly calculating that this will exercise morepressure on the Trump administration“. For theIranian regimefor which thesurvival means victoryfar salire i oil pricesit is a key indicator of success against a US president determined to keep them low. THE’crude oil price surges to $100 a barrelis influencing the way in which theguerra.

Iran’s ace in the hole

The ace in the holeIranhas become thede facto blockade of the straitthrough which normally passes a fifth of theglobal oil and liquefied gasan arm of sea less than 21 nautical miles wide, which exposes thePETROLEUMat the very high risk of being affected bydrones and missilescoming from the southern Iranian coast. Despite previous threats, theIrannever hadblocked Hormuz prima d’ora.

Tehran’s oil strategy

The decision to do so this month, together with theattacks against energy infrastructureof neighboring countries, demonstrates how much thisguerrahas become a question oflife or death for the Iranian regime. “L’Iranexploited this advantage, surprising many, even among Iranians themselves,” said Hamid Hosseini of the Union ofIranian oil exportersadding that theTehran’s exportsthey continue. “If theconflictif protracted, readworld reservesthey will run out.” And in view of this possibilityTeheranseems to have addressed itself directly to theoil traderin Geneva and New York, boasting that theBrent pricecan reach i200 dollars a barrel.

Bloomberg also outlined a similar scenario, according to which, if theHormuz blockadeshould it last another 2 or 3 monthsoil pricewill reach i$160.

The White House and the oil factor

La pressure on the Trump administrationhas increased in view ofmid-term electionsin view of which the Republicans fear a hemorrhage of votes due to therise in inflationaggravated by the increase inpetrol prices. La White Housewho had initially adopted a triumphalistic attitude towards theguerrahe quickly changed his tone last Sunday, when ioil pricesthey skyrocketed when the markets opened.

“It was as if their eyes were opened and they realized they had a bigger problem than they thought” a source familiar with the reactions of the woman told the FTWhite House. Sunday evening, iUS officialsthey supported a meeting of finance ministers ofG7for the next morning in order to discuss itemergency release of oil reservesa move that theWhite Househe had repeatedly ruled out the previous week.

A Financial Times article on thisabout-face ha contribuito a cool the marketsas well as the statements ofTrump sulla imminent end of the waralthough the announcement did not stop theoil price rally.

The markets and the Hormuz blockade

Pyatt, who worked on theenergy security per l’Biden administrationstates that most of these suggestions would be only marginally useful. In 2022, when ioil pricesskyrocketed following theRussian invasion of Ukrainel’Biden administrationmanaged to manage the situation with “traditional tools” such asemergency oil release.

But now, warns Pyatt, colHormuz blockade“It’s a question ofsafetyand it is difficult to resolve a question ofsecurity with financial leverage“. Friday, after the markets close, theBrentflew to103 dollars a barrel. And the market predicts that theoil priceit will come back to about80 dollars a barrelonly by January next year.

The hypothesis of US intervention in the derivatives markets

Gli oil market operatorsthey even hypothesized that theUS governmentmight try tointervene in derivatives markets per far scendere i prices. But Terry Duffy, the head of theCME Group of Chicagoil derivatives marketlargest and most diverse in the world, warned that such a move risks unleashing a “biblical disaster“.

“I marketsthey don’t like thegovernment intervention on prices” explains Duffy, warning that theinvestorsthey may lose confidence in the ability ofmarketsto establish theprice of essential raw materialsand this “would be acatastrophe“.

US moves to lower oil prices

After the half flop ofrelease of millions of barrels of oilby theAIEil US Treasurywould be considering other measures tolower oil pricesincluding theintervention on futures marketsnot recommended by many experts, or other measures such astemporary suspension of federal gasoline taxesl’easing of environmental regulations on fuels o il temporary ban on oil exports from the United States.

La escort of oil tankers with warshipsat the moment it is not a feasible option, as the US energy secretary himself admittedUnited StatesChris Wright. Ernest Moniz, Secretary of Energy during theObama administrationhe confided to the FT, “if I were Chris Wright, I would enteroil on the market“. “If they cannot be replaced quickly10 million barrels a dayon the market, I don’t see how it can be tamedvolatilitythat we are observing.”

Israel and the Gulf countries

Moniz added that the problem ofmarket controlis aggravated by the fact that theIsrael’s war objectivesdiverge from those of its US ally, with the Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahumuch less concerned aboutoil price. “What is absolutely clear is that theobjectives of the United States and Israelare not fully aligned”, adds Moniz. The position ofIsraelcontrasts sharply with that ofGulf countries trascinati nel conflict.

Qatar and Saudi Arabia sound the alarm on oil

Both theQatar sia l’Saudi Arabiahave raised the alarm about the risk that is worsening day by day, as theiroil and gas fields e gli processing plantsthey take further damage and take longer to return to normal. According to several sources familiar with the facts, iGulf countriesthey would try to warn himUnited Statesof the chaos they would unleash by attempting aregime change in Teheranbefore the start offighting.

“I don’t know howUnited Statesthey didn’t expect it. They had been warned. They chose to ignore the warnings and here we are,” says Helima Croft, a former civil servantCIAand now analyst atRBC Capital Marketsadding that iGulf countriesthey are “furious about what happened”.

Future prospects

Il marketis perfectly aware that a return to normality could take months or even years. The decision to end theguerrait is not in the hands of aloneUnited States and Israel. Roxane Farmafamaian, del Royal United Services Institute of the United Kingdoma think tank specializing in defense, predicts that theIraniansthey will continue to keep it closedstrict e ad aumentare i oil and gas pricesfor a considerable period. “THE’Iranhe wants to make sure that, in eight or ten months, once he establishes acease-fire, Israelis and Americansthey don’t come back.

They don’t want onethird war. Then they will push the situation to the point where theyamericansthey will never be able to return,” he says. “After theguerral’Iranwill keep thecontrol of the straitand may require payment oftolls for its passage“, says Hosseini, a member of the union ofIranian oil exporters. “No country will be able to counter this situation. TheIranfound aleverage point a cui gli United Statesthey cannot oppose oneeffective counteroffensive“.