Vietnamese pepper ‘monopolizes’ the Thai market

According to data from the Customs Department, by the end of February, Vietnam exported 35,600 tons of pepper, earning more than 231 million USD, an increase of 30.8% in output and 25.6% in value compared to the same period last year.

This upward momentum takes place in the context of many supporting factors in the world market. This year, global pepper supply is forecast to decrease by 15-20% due to a decline in inventories in major producing countries, while demand clearly recovers. Notably, the US is expected to increase imports when the tax rate reaches 0%, while China increases purchases due to low inventories.

Domestic pepper prices decreased compared to before but remained at a high level, about 136,000 VND per kg (March 22), helping farmers keep positive profit margins. The average export price also recovered in February, reaching 6,609 USD per ton. However, in the first two months of the year, pepper prices still decreased by 4% over the same period, to 6,499 USD per ton.

The US continues to be the largest customer of Vietnamese pepper, accounting for more than 25% of total exports, equivalent to nearly 66 million USD. Germany ranked second with a turnover of nearly 15 million USD.

Thailand rose to third place as imports increased dramatically. In the first two months of the year, exports to this market reached 1,940 tons, worth more than 14 million USD, an increase of 125% in volume and 104% in value compared to the same period last year.

This trend is not accidental. Data from the Thai Ministry of Commerce shows that the country’s pepper imports have increased steadily in recent years, from 5,990 tons in 2020 to 9,652 tons in 2025, equivalent to an average growth rate of about 10% per year.

Currently, Vietnam almost “monopolizes” the supply in this market, accounting for 99.63% of total imports. Demand for spices for the food and tourism industries is increasing rapidly, while domestic production is limited and costs are high, forcing Thailand to boost imports.

Not only serving consumption, this market also tends to increase reserves in the context of shrinking global supply, thereby continuing to boost import demand in the coming time.

Accordingly, Vietnamese businesses have the opportunity to expand market share in fast-growing markets like Thailand, in addition to traditional markets like the US and Europe.

Although the harvest has begun, supply to the market has not increased significantly as farmers tend to sell in moderation, expecting prices to continue to increase. This causes short-term supply to remain limited, contributing to keeping the price level at a high level. In the context that supply has not improved significantly, the pepper market is forecast to continue to maintain a high price trend in the medium and long term.