The expectations of export companies are confusing: The war is raging, but the numbers show growth

The growing uncertainty of the world situation and geopolitics remains a constant concern for export companies, but the companies’ growth expectations are still almost strangely positive.

The latest proof of this was obtained last Friday, when the Chamber of Commerce published a survey of export companies, in which no fewer than 64 percent of respondents estimated that their exports will increase this year compared to the previous year.

Only ten percent of the companies, on the other hand, believe that exports will decrease.

The results are almost at the same level as in the previous survey in December, even though on the last day of February the United States and Israel attacked Iran and the international operating environment has tightened even more.

The survey was conducted on the 5th-10th. March, during which time the situation in the Persian Gulf has worsened all the time, and especially gas and oil transports from Western countries through the Strait of Hormuz have stopped completely.

According to the companies, the biggest factor weakening export prospects is the US president Donald Trump’s uncertainty related to the actions of the administration.

Nevertheless, the view of improved prospects for exports is slightly better than in a similar survey conducted a year ago, where 63 percent of companies anticipate an increase in exports and about ten percent a decrease.

However, more than 56 percent of the exporting companies stated that the Iran war and the change in transport routes in the Middle East have a direct impact on them. Every sixth company could not say whether there was an effect or not.

The contradiction can be explained by the fact that slightly more than half, or 53 percent, of the respondents have prepared for the short-term disruption of the exceptional situation in the Persian Gulf, four percent had prepared earlier and more than a quarter have felt no need to prepare for problems in the Persian Gulf at all. A little less than a fifth of the respondents have prepared for a long-term disturbance.

The February export barometer of the Swedish Confederation of Finnish Industries EK also supports the survey of the Chamber of Commerce. In EK’s barometer, export growth expectations have strengthened since last autumn: now already 47 percent of companies estimate that their exports will increase in the next six months. Last fall, 40 percent of the respondents expected an increase in exports.

From Finland’s point of view, it is appropriate to hope that the export companies’ vision of the future will come true and that the Persian Gulf crisis will start to show signs of abating. It is not visible yet, quite the opposite.

According to the Washington Post, the Trump administration is about to ask Congress for an additional $200 billion in authorizations to finance the war with Iran, which is not a sign that the war will end soon.

The value of Finland’s exports of goods last year was 74.3 billion euros – the growth until 2024 was 3.1 percent. According to preliminary data from January of the current year, the growth in the value of goods exports has continued.

The positive views of export companies are backed by hard facts. Now, many things depend on when the war in Iran will end.