What if Arab oil costs over $160

I record prices of some types of Middle Eastern crude oil,according to him market operatorswill soon have repercussions on the United Stateson theEuropa and above all on theAsia if the peace talks do not yield quick results.

This is revealed by Wsjwarning that, despite today the Brentit main crude oil reference benchmark is, albeit slightly, below 100 dollars a barrelthe closure of Strait of Hormuz is forcing them Asian refineries to pay 160 dollars a barrel for the oil from the United Arab Emiratesa price well above global benchmarks. Furthermore, the newspaper adds that i Dubai crude oil prices have increased by more than 150% since the beginning of 2026. And also the oil prices from the Johan Sverdrup fieldoff the coast of Norway, splashed a record levelssurpassing Brent, as well as those of the others crude oils with high sulfur content – “acids” in industry parlance – have seen their prices soar, including the Northern Alaska oilaccording to Argus data.

Brent futures and the reduction in supplies

More generally i future sul Brent they have grown by 64% since the beginning of the year. According to market participants, these prices are a harbinger of what could happen to the rest of the market if the Persian Gulf it won’t be reopening anytime soon. This is because i Asian customers they are scouring the world for similar varieties of crude oil to continue producing diesel e aviation fuel. Furthermore, the WSJ, citing analysts from JPMorgan Chasehighlights that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced by 16 million barrels the daily supplies of oil.

The price distortions between Brent and WTI

There are also other prices significant distortions. Brent, which is mined in Europe, is traded at a historically high premium Of 12 dollars a barrel compared to benchmark americano Wtitraded in Cushing, Oklahoma. For operators, the price difference is to be attributed to the geographical position of the WTI, far from the Asian areas where the oil is more in demand. The lower price also reflects the higher ones shipping costs necessary to get it to Asian buyers, as well as the fear that United States can limit the crude oil exports to preserve the internal energy resources.

The search for alternative crude oil

The Asian refineries I’m looking for sulphur-rich oil to replace i Middle Eastern flockswhose prices are becoming prohibitive, driving up the prices of oil from Norway, Russia, Colombia and even by some US crude oils. Cargoes are diverted from Europe to Asia, where the Persian Gulf shock it is sharper and traders can get a premium. Brent itself has a much lower sulfur content than Dubai oil.

The unreliability of Brent futures

Furthermore, i Brent futures contractswidely monitored, refer to crude that will be delivered in May, when many traders believe the war may be over. Some also argue that i future have become one unreliable indicator of the conditions of physical oil marketsince banks, commodity traders e hedge funds have reduced their activities to avoid huge losses, creating a vicious circle of limited and strong exchanges price fluctuations.

Chaos in the Gulf markets

I Gulf markets they were so chaotic that i Dubai oil pricesat the moment, do not even include crude oil from Dubai, the emirate. Not being able to get out of the strait, the price tracking company they excluded this quality from their calculations. The prices, however, reflect the agreements for the oil from Omanjust outside Hormuz, and a small amount of crude oil from Abu Dhabi which is transported via pipeline to Porto in Fujairahalso beyond the narrowest point of the strait.