Oil companies can earn billions of dollars in the Middle East conflict

This week, leaders of major oil companies will meet to discuss the largest global energy supply disruption in history, due to war in the Middle East. However, this cannot negate the fact that they have earned billions of dollars more thanks to skyrocketing energy prices.

On average in March, Brent oil prices reached 97 USD per barrel, up 33% compared to February. Gas prices in many places around the world also increased more strongly. The conflict in the Middle East lasted nearly a month, disrupting 20% ​​of global crude oil and liquefied gas (LNG) flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Chevron (USA) oil and gas company produced 4 million barrels of oil per day, with an average price of 64 USD per barrel. Reuters Calculating that with an increase of 33 USD, oil sales revenue of US oil and gas companies increased by 4 billion USD in March.

Meanwhile, Exxon produces about 5 million barrels per day. Assuming the same increase, they earn an additional $5.1 billion this month.

This situation is similar to 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, shaking the energy market. At that time, oil companies paid record dividends and bought back huge amounts of stock. This sparked calls to impose taxes on the unusual profits of energy corporations.

“Oil companies’ profits will definitely explode in the first quarter of this year,” said Leo Mariani – senior analyst at Roth Capital Partners.

American shale oil companies and companies without facilities in the Middle East benefit the most. Oil prices increased, while they did not have to pay additional costs for facilities that had to be shut down, damaged by war, or oil ships stuck offshore.

To date, 6 analysts have raised Chevron’s profit per share forecast for the first quarter by 40%. Three other analysts also raised energy group Shell’s net profit forecast for this quarter by 15%.

Meanwhile, Wall Street’s profit forecast for Exxon Mobile this year is only 4% higher than before the war. This level is smaller than other companies, possibly because the largest US oil company has a presence in the Middle East, according to Stewart Glickman – Research Director at CFRA Research.

Exxon will release its first-quarter financial report next month. An updated Shell report was also released on April 8, detailing the expected financial impacts from the conflict. Part of its gas-to-liquid (GTL) plant in Qatar was damaged in the attacks..

The fighting is also disrupting the gas market. In Asia, liquefied natural gas prices have increased 143% since the conflict began. Asian countries rely heavily on oil and gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, the positive financial impact of this for energy companies may be limited, due to the decline in oil and gas production base in the Middle East. Businesses also spend additional transportation costs to properly comply with contracts with customers. Some facilities were even damaged by Iranian missile and drone attacks.

James West – head of energy and power research at Melius Research, said that stopping exploration and exploitation activities in the Middle East could also cause damage to US oil and gas service companies. For example, oil and gas services firm SLB records 34% of its revenue from the Middle East and North America region. Meanwhile, Weatherford International gets 44% of its revenue from the Gulf region.

In a previous report, SLB said first-quarter revenue would be lower than expected. The company also expects to incur additional costs, dragging down profits per share.

Other US shale oil companies are also forecast to make big profits thanks to high oil prices. Wall Street currently forecasts that Diamondback – a company that only exploits domestically – will achieve profits per share 28% higher than before the war.

“The oil industry is completely dependent on prices. When prices increase, every oil company benefits,” said Anil Agarwal – founder of Cairn Oil & Gas (India).

However, high profits in the first quarter are unlikely to motivate oil companies to have investment plans to increase exploitation output. “I don’t want to rely on recent price movements. It’s like a short-term fluctuation,” said Jeff Lawson – Vice President of Cenovus – one of Canada’s largest oil sands operators.

Lawson did not specifically mention how the current price would impact Cenovus’ first-quarter profits. However, he said a short-term price increase is unlikely to prompt Canadian oil sands firms to approve new projects.

“Oil prices will rise and then fall. And I need proof in the next 5-7 years that a new project will be effective,” he explained.