The sharp increases in diesel and fertilizer prices impact the field margins

One of the main sources of tension is located in the Strait of Hormuza strategic node through which approximately 25% of the world’s oil trade circulates. The reduction in maritime traffic in the area increased logistical risks and put upward pressure on international energy prices. In the first weeks after the start of the conflict, The barrel of oil registered increases of between 42% and 50%, marking the pulse of a market highly sensitive to geopolitical disruptions.

This movement had an immediate correlation in the local fuel market. In Argentina, the price of grade 2 diesel (the one used for agricultural machines) increased by 22% between the end of February and the third week of March, going from $1,775 to $2,166 per liter. For the agricultural sector, this increase comes at a critical moment: the thick harvest, where fuel is a central input both for work and for transporting production.

In this sense, according to the latest report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the harvested area of ​​corn reached 15% of the almost 8 million hectares planted, while the entire soybean area (17.6 million hectares) still remains to be threshed.

In turn, the impact of diesel is also channeled through logistics costs. Continuing with the work of the Rural Society, Fuel represents about a third of the cost of freight transportationso an increase of this magnitude translates into estimated increases of between 6% and 7% in agricultural freight. Furthermore, the effect is not uniform throughout the country: the greater the distance to export ports, the greater the impact on costs per ton.

In concrete terms, An establishment located 300 kilometers from the ports faces an increase in freight of about 3 dollars per tonwhile in distances of 800 kilometers the increase amounts to 4 dollars and can reach 5 dollars per ton in areas 1,100 kilometers away.

The increase in transportation costs also affects the price that the producer receives. In the case of soybeans, the cost of freight goes from representing 11% to 12% of the final value in nearby destinations, while in crops such as corn and wheat —more dependent on the logistics component— this incidence is between 20% and 22%, amplifying the impact on margins.

The second major transmission channel of the international shock is the fertilizer market, particularly nitrogenous fertilizers. Urea registered an increase of more than 36% in the international market in just three weeks. At the local level, the increase was even greater, reaching 42%, with prices that went from 530 to 750 dollars per ton.

At this point, a report from the Chamber of the Argentine Fertilizer and Agrochemical Industry (CIAFA) provides context on the relevance of the input in the country. lUrea imports in Argentina have averaged about 1.16 million tons in the last five years, volume that is complemented by a local production of close to 1.2 million tons, mainly by Profertil. This shows that, although there is a domestic productive base, the market continues to be strongly integrated into international trade.

Likewise, CIAFA points out that The main source of external supply comes from the countries of the Persian Gulf and Egypt (35% of the total)regions directly affected by the current conflict. In recent years, Nigeria has also gained participation, followed by Algeria, while Bolivia appears as an eventual supplier. This geographical concentration of supply explains the rapid reaction of prices to any alteration in that strategic area.

The SRA explains that the behavior of urea responds, to a large extent, to the increase in the price of gas, the main input in its production, and to the sensitivity of the market to logistical restrictions. Added to this are internal factors such as price restructuring, product availability and higher transportation costs.

Unlike urea, other fertilizers showed more moderate variations: phosphate fertilizers registered marginal increases -4.6% in the case of DAP and 1.5% in MAP-, while potassium remained practically unchanged.

vIn this context, international commodity prices had disparate impacts. In the case of soybeans, continuing with the SRA report, there were no increases while the value of corn was only 4%.

Faced with this scenario, The national government moved forward with measures to provide greater flexibility in the use of biofuels and thus lower the pressure at the pumps.. Through Resolution 79/2026, refiners were enabled to voluntarily incorporate up to 15% bioethanol in gasoline, without modifying the current mandatory cut or imposing new requirements.

Meanwhile, the regulations do not introduce changes in the biodiesel regime, since diesel already contemplates mixtures of up to 20%, which in fact offers a prior margin to cushion increases in this segment.

Looking ahead, the SRA warns that The impact will depend on the duration of the conflict. In the short term, the main effect is concentrated in the increase in diesel fuel, which makes harvesting tasks and grain transportation more expensive. However, if the scenario continues, the focus will progressively shift to fertilizers, more profoundly affecting the economic equation of the final 2026/27 campaign.

Estimates indicate that, under current conditions, Wheat production costs could increase between 9.5% and 11%, depending on the distance to the port. In absolute terms, this implies an increase of around 58 dollars per hectare, explained mainly by the rise in urea, which would contribute an additional 39 dollars, and by the higher cost of diesel and freight, which would add another 19 dollars.