Having knocked out support for Ukraine, Orbán’s position is shaking worst in 16 years

Under the leadership of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Hungary has repeatedly slowed down the progress of EU sanctions against Russia and opposed the use of frozen Russian funds for the benefit of Ukraine. Most recently, in March, Orbán refused to approve a joint EU loan of 90 billion euros for Ukraine until the Druzhba oil pipeline, which was damaged by Russian attacks and brings Russian oil to Hungary, is repaired.

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (Kok) and other EU leaders expressed their frustration with the situation after the March prank. The stalling of the support loan was interpreted as Orbán’s campaigning for this week’s Sunday parliamentary elections, under which Orbán has painted threatening pictures of Ukraine and the EU.

Orbán has led Hungary continuously for 16 years, but according to opinion polls, his Fidesz party may lose the election this time. The polls are led by the Tisza party founded by Orbán’s former ally Péter Magyar. Despite a poll lead of about 10 percentage points, the change of power is not yet certain.

The sitting prime minister received last-minute support from US Vice President JD Vance, who arrived in the country on Tuesday. In addition to Donald Trump’s administration, Orbán has close ties to Russia’s leadership, and during the elections, the country’s foreign minister admitted that he had passed on information to Russia about discussions at EU meetings.

Instead of foreign policy, the elections are still more likely to be decided on domestic political issues. Challenger Magyar’s popularity is based on promises to improve healthcare, education and public services. Hungary’s economy has suffered in recent years partly because EU funding has not been received due to rule of law concerns following Orbán’s policies.

Ukraine’s aid loan was delayed over the Hungarian elections. It is still not clear how Orbán’s challenger would react to EU cooperation and Ukraine support as prime minister.

Magyar has promised to build new trust with EU and NATO countries. However, he does not support, for example, speeding up Ukraine’s EU membership, and his party’s representatives voted against Ukraine’s support loan in the EU Parliament. He has criticized Hungary’s rapprochement with Russia, but has not promised to stop importing oil from Russia quickly.

Only after a possible election victory will it become clear whether Magyar is deliberately keeping a distance from the EU and Ukraine in order to achieve an election victory, or whether Hungary’s Ukraine policy will largely remain the same.

The question is critical for Ukraine, and thus also for Finland. After the EU summit in March, it was estimated that Ukraine’s money in this installment will be enough until the beginning of May. If the subsidy loan does not proceed even after the Hungarian elections, the financing must be resolved quickly in another way.

Hungary has been able to put a stop to the EU’s support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, because the decisions required the support of all member countries. No matter how the Hungarian elections turned out, the impasse should wake up people to consider whether this model is already in need of an overhaul.