After the announcement of the ceasefire, this is the question that worries the world

The lack of clarity stems from a significant gap between the official statements of Iran and the US. While Trump wrote that a “total, immediate and safe opening” had been achieved (in the original – in capital letters in English), the 10 points published by Iran’s official news agency actually spoke of “coordination with the armed forces” of Iran while taking into account the “technical limitations”, and in the long term granting “special status” to Iran in Hormuz. Two The statements, which have a very different tone, do not answer a simple factual question: which route will the ships be able to leave (and enter) through Hormuz, and will they have to pay a ransom to Iran or leave for free?

2 million dollars for a ship passage

Already two weeks ago it was reported At least 26 ships left Hormuz through Iranian territorial waters, some paid $2 million per ship for the passage, and others obtained special treatment in coordination and agreement with Iran, through governments such as China and India. Other ships, like four of the Greek company Dynacom, probably rather “sneaked” through the strait with transmitters turned off amid missile threats.

Passing only under Iranian auspices, if it happens, will be a significant achievement for the Islamic Republic in Tehran. On the other hand, the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz without conditions would be an American achievement, although this too was achieved solely with Iranian consent and not due to an American takeover of the strait.

One way or another, until the necessary clarifications are obtained regarding the nature of the opening of Hormuz, the owners of the shipping companies intend to wait. One shipping company with several ships in the Gulf told Lloyd’s List, a maritime news and intelligence agency, on Wednesday morning that it is busy planning to move the ships, but nothing will happen “until it is clear” what protocols Iran will impose.

Meanwhile, the markets are apparently pricing in that these ships will leave and reach their destination, as the price of oil plunged by about 14% tonight to $94 per Brent barrel. This is still a very high price in historical terms. Because even if the US and Iran reach a permanent agreement, the destruction of infrastructure throughout the Gulf will result in a reduction in oil production and refining, so that the price of oil expected to remain relatively high also in the coming years.