The Iran war may yet escalate again

The markets heaved a sigh of relief when the US president was avoided in the Iran war Donald Trump’s threatened by a major escalation. However, the situation can still escalate again.

Iran has been able to put up a strong resistance and has largely blocked the transport of the Strait of Hormuz, which is important for world trade. Trump threatened on Tuesday that “the whole civilization will die” if Iran does not stop its activities by the deadline.

A couple of hours before the deadline, the parties reached an agreement on a two-week ceasefire.

Iran signaled that it would be possible to pass safely through the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire. The price of oil started to drop significantly and the stocks were climbing. The Helsinki Stock Exchange accelerated to an increase of more than two percent at the opening.

However, we are still far from a solution. The war has not gone according to the plans of the United States. Although it has achieved military goals, many of the original ideas have not been realized.

After about six weeks, opening the Strait of Hormuz became the number one priority. At the beginning of the war, the United States and Israel, the prime mover of the attack, had different goals in mind. In the beginning, there was talk of, among other things, changing the repressive regime, popular uprising and ending the nuclear program.

The Trump administration rushed Wednesday to declare the situation a victory for the United States. Iran also marketed the deal as a victory, saying it had forced the United States to accept its terms. Iran has a long list of strict demands.

Iran’s demands include a promise not to attack the country again, control of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions, the withdrawal of US forces from the region and receiving war reparations. If Iran were to get all its wishes, it could really be considered a victory.

Iran’s demands are unlikely to go through as they are. Then it would be difficult for Trump to paint the end result as a victory, even for his own supporters. Even now, the war appears to be a tactical miscalculation, from which Trump sought a way out with completely extraordinary threats.

Israel has its own goals and the current outcome would be disappointing for it. Israel, dependent on US support, said it supported the ceasefire except for Lebanon, where it wants to continue its military operation.

Over the years, in the scenarios and simulations of various experts, the Iran war has always been described as a complex tangle, where achieving the goals would require time and sacrifices.

This was forgotten. Trump would clearly have hoped that the war would have been resolved with precision strikes and a short bombardment. The administration has so far been reluctant to send ground troops to the scene.

If the US wants a real victory over Iran, it may still have to finish what it started. Fortunately, a catastrophic escalation was avoided this time. However, you should be prepared for the situation to tighten again.