A year of dismantling the stocks: after record purchases by savers, they believe that the Central Bank has a chance to release it completely

The announcement was made in tandem by the Minister of Economy Luis Caputo and the president of the Central Bank Santiago Bausili he April 11 of last year, on a Friday afternoon, hours before the Monetary Fund board ended up giving the green light to the program and the disbursement of US$12 billion.

The surprise was given because a broad release of restrictions was not expected a prioribut rather gradual. Along with this measure, the economic team also announced the end of the crawling pegthat monthly fixed exchange rate depreciation scheme. The scheme of floating between bands.

The release of people from the stocks took effect from the following Monday. From that moment on, the end of restrictions for savers acted as a start signal: The demand that was previously conveyed through parallel dollars began to be channeled almost entirely through the official market. Left behind was the 200 dollar limit monthly losses that have weighed on savers since the end of 2019.

That first month without limit on foreign currency purchases ended with a net demand (discounted sales) by savers of US$ 2,021 million. Since May, the pace of people’s dollarization has been growing, in step with the proximity of the legislative elections.

This amount of uncertainty meant that in September, the month in which the ruling party lost the Buenos Aires legislative elections, the peak of people’s dollar purchases was recorded: they were US$6.5 billion in a single month. It only eased in November, after the victory of La Libertad Avanza. It fell that month to just under $1.1 billion.

As a balance of the year, official data show that the dollarization appetite of savers was, in this electoral instance, the highest ever recorded by the Central Bank. A yellow light went on in the first two months of the year, because portfolio dollarization once again showed a relevant pace (US$ 2.7 billion and US$ 2.1 billion in January and February, respectively).

Estimates from the economic team indicate that, during the pre-electoral months, an equivalent of half of all the pesos in circulation sought some type of exchange coverage. Whether with bills, future dollars or instruments that protect against devaluation.

With the information up to February, published a few days ago by the Central Bank, one conclusion is that in the first ten months of leaving the stocks for savers, people bought US$37.8 billion. As a comparison, it is equivalent to two thirds of the debt that is in force between Argentina and the Monetary Fund.

An analysis by the consulting firm LCG suggested that the release of people from the stocks had a positive impact in the gap between the official and the parallel, in the “sincerity” of the exchange conditions and an increase in foreign currency deposits. In any case, he also warned that part of this demand was driven by the idea that “the dollar was cheap.”

“In stabilization programs in several countries, for example, in Israel, the exchange front could be better managed, not only with funding from international organizations, but with the flow of remittances from residents or family members. In Argentina it is as if the flow of remittances was negative and constant, which imposes additional challenges in stabilizing the economy,” LCG concluded.

The arrival of dollars from the coarse harvest, in the coming weeks, raised that question in the market. In other words, if a faster and more voluminous currency accumulation cushion from the BCRA will prepare the ground for a removal of remaining restrictions, mainly for companies.

In a report titled “Window of Opportunity,” that issue was addressed this week by the research area of ​​Banco Galicia. “Between April and July, in just four months, around 45% of the year’s foreign currency is usually liquidated,” they estimated.

“Will the peak foreign exchange inflow season be the appropriate time to continue eliminating restrictions?” asked one of the main national capital banks.

The entity recalled Bausili’s statements about the need to sustain “defense mechanisms” against situations of volatility, although he interpreted that “it could refer to certain rules and not to the entire scheme, leaving room for some gradual deregulation“.

In that sense, he reviewed the restrictions still in force: He assured that 90% of import payments are made “deferred” instead of in cash, he also mentioned limits on export charges, which must be settled within certain deadlines.

Another important limit is that legal entities (companies) cannot buy dollars to hoard or to pay debt, whether commercial or intercompany. The payment of dividends for profits achieved in 2025 was released since January, as Clarín explained, although there was no definition regarding the balances from previous years.

There are still “cross” restrictions: whoever operates in the official market cannot access the financial market for 90 days, and vice versa. Not only that: not all the Central Bank’s paths are directed towards flexibility; some go in the opposite direction. For example, this week it limited speculative movements by investors who earned a difference by sending official dollars abroad and re-entering financial dollars.

“The flow of dollars promises to be relevant in the coming months; the question is not whether there will be foreign currency, but How willing will the BCRA be to convert this temporary relief into permanent changes?“Galicia concluded.

A report from Epyca, meanwhile, recalled that a year after the first major relaxation of the stocks, “the BCRA advanced a new round of regulatory relaxation.” In any case, he considered that the Government still maintains some controls “in sensitive nodes.”

“The stocks still alive, although reducedand the main proof of this is that the exchange gap continues to exist,” stated the consulting firm run by Martín Kalos. In his interpretation, the current restrictions continue to be “a functional piece” for the exchange rate scheme in a context of dollar appreciation.