Rates drop around the world amid fears of renewed fighting, oil soars

13:44

After falling sharply following the ceasefire, oil prices ended the week below the $100 per barrel mark, this morning they are jumping again and about 7% to 103 and 101 for WTI and Brent oil respectively.

Iran threatens to paralyze the world’s main trade routes. In an official statement by the armed forces, distributed in the state media, Tehran posed a dangerous equation: “Security in ports is for everyone or no one.” This means a direct threat to the ports of the neighboring countries in the Persian Gulf and the coast of Oman – a move that could also bring the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia into the circle of combat, if Iran’s ports are attacked. In addition, Iran defined the American restrictions on the movement of vessels as “acts of piracy”, thus setting the stage for a military escalation against the American fleet operating in the area.

The most significant pillar of the statement is the announcement of the establishment of a “permanent mechanism to control the Strait of Hormuz”. Iran actually declares full sovereignty over the waterway through which about a fifth of the world’s oil consumption passes, and announces that it will prevent the passage of vessels identified with its “enemies”. Such a move turns the temporary blockade of the Strait into a long-term policy, which explains the rise in oil prices, despite reports of talks with Lebanon. For the markets, this is a permanent “risk premium” that will continue to fuel inflation and burden the global economy.

12:44

Trading in Europe is conducted with rates falling – the Paris and Frankfurt stock exchanges drop by 0.8%, London by 0.4%. Futures in New York are falling at a similar rate.

6:53

The winds of war are blowing again and sending the markets down from Asia to Wall Street.

Crude oil prices are soaring after the failure of negotiations and after President Trump announced that he will block traffic in the Straits of Hormuz starting at 10:00 a.m. EDT (5:00 p.m. Israel time).

In Asia this morning, the Nikkei index in Japan is down about 1%, the Kospi in South Korea and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong are down 1.2% each, and Australia is down about 0.5%.

Rates are expected to drop in the US. The contracts on Wall Street signal declines of up to 0.8% in all indices.

Even in cryptocurrency rate drops, Bitcoin loses 0.8% and trades around $70,000, its price is about 40% lower than the record it recorded in October.

The failure of negotiations over the weekend in Islamabad and threats of renewed attacks are reigniting fears that the war will drag on for a long time, leading to higher oil prices that will continue to put pressure on economies around the world. According to the Wall Street Journal Trumpap is also considering a limited renewal of the attacks in Iran, which for its part is also threatening a renewed escalation.

● “Collapse is definitely possible”: experts are trying to assess where the markets are going

On Friday, Wall Street also got a boost from the temporary ceasefire and concluded a green week. The S&P 500 index rose by about 3.6%, the Dow Jones added about 3% to its value and the Nasdaq strengthened by about 4.7%.

● The Israeli one, which fell by about 20% – and is expected, according to analysts, to double its value

Investors are just beginning to recover from a weeks-long decline caused by the conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices. But the next test for the stock markets is already here – the report season on Wall Street opens and may suggest a change in pace and tone.

“Earnings are the market’s opportunity to shift the conversation from geopolitics back to fundamentals,” said Brett Canwell, US investment analyst at eToro. “The risk is that the reports won’t really provide that sense of security.”

Expectations are high: The estimated growth rate for first-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 index stands at 12.6%, according to FactSet data. If realized, it will be the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. The number of companies publishing positive profit forecasts for the quarter reached the highest level since 2021.

among those reported this week, J. times. morgan, Goldman Sachs andMorgan Stanley . The chip giants will report further ASML and-TSMC as well as the streaming giant Netflix .