The death of a British passenger and the injuries suffered by dozens of people on board a flight Singapore Airlines that suffered severe turbulence this Tuesday exposes the potential risks of flying in unstable conditions.
The cause of death of the 73-year-old passenger remains under investigation. According to authorities, he may have suffered a heart attack, although this has not been confirmed. Based on witness accounts, the number of injuries, and the sharp descent of the plane, experts point out the significant risks that in-flight turbulence poses to the safety of passengers and crew.
Although turbulence-related deaths are fairly rare, injuries have been increasing over the years. Some meteorologists and aviation experts note that reports of encounters with turbulence also They have increased and point to the possible repercussions that climate change could have on flight conditions.
However, most incidents are minor, and airlines have made steady improvements to reduce turbulence accident rates. Experts recommend travelers to remain alert and emphasize the importance of wear the seat belt fastened whenever possible.
Turbulence is essentially an unstable air current that moves unpredictably. Most relate them to strong storms, but the most dangerous is the clear sky turbulencewhich usually occurs without any visible warning.
This type of turbulence occurs mainly within or near high-altitude air currents, called jet streams. They occur when two large masses of nearby air move at different speeds. If the speed difference is large enough, the atmosphere cannot withstand the stress and turbulent patterns emerge, like eddies in water.
“When strong wind shear occurs near the jet stream, the air can overflow. And that creates these chaotic movements in the air,” he explains. Thomas Guinnchair of the department of applied aeronautical sciences at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, Florida.
It is difficult to count the total number of turbulence-related injuries worldwide. But some countries publish national data.
More than a third of all air incidents that occurred in USA between 2009 and 2018 were related to turbulence, and most of them caused at least one serious injury but no damage to the plane, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reported.
Between 2009 and 2022, 163 people required hospital care for at least two days due to injuries caused by turbulence, according to NTSB figures. Most of them were flight assistantswho are at particular risk as they are less likely to be in their seats during a flight.
Authorities are already investigating what happened on Tuesday’s Singapore Airlines flight. The airline stated that the Boeing 777-300ER It descended 6,000 feet (about 1,800 meters) in three minutes after encountering severe turbulence over the Indian Ocean.
Preliminary casualty figures provided by the airport and a hospital in Bangkok, where the aircraft traveling from London to Singapore was forced to land, indicated that in addition to the man who died, six or seven passengers were seriously injured. Dozens of other travelers and crew members suffered minor injuries.
“It is not unusual to have encounters that cause minor injuries, such as a fracture,” he said. Larry Cornman, a scientist at the National Science Foundation’s National Center for Atmospheric Research, who has long studied turbulence. “But deaths are very, very rare, especially on large commercial aircraft.”
According to Stuart Foxdirector of flight and technical operations for the International Air Transport Association, the last clear turbulence-related death reported by a major airline occurred in 1997. Since then there have been some deaths on smaller aircraft, including one in a private jet last year, according to Fox.
Standardized safety procedures have gone a long way toward preventing more serious injury cases over the years, Fox said. These include reviewing weather forecasts, requiring pilots to report when they encounter turbulence, and suspending of cabin service when planes encounter rough air.
Pilots use various methods to avoid turbulence, including weather radar. Sometimes they can simply see the storms and avoid them.
But the turbulence of clear skies “is a different story,” according to Doug Moss, former commercial pilot and security consultant. They can be devastating, he says, “because the moment before the incident can be very quiet, and it catches people off guard.”
Air traffic controllers alert pilots when another plane encounters clear-sky turbulence, Moss explains. Many pilots also watch upper-level jet streams along their path, looking for signs of wind shear, and then make a plan to fly above, below or around those areas, he said.
Modern airplanes are tough enough to withstand almost any turbulence. Areas of the cabin, such as overhead bins, may suffer cosmetic damage, “but it does not affect the structural integrity of the aircraft,” Moss said.
Some scientists note that reports of encounters with turbulence are increasing. There are several possible explanations, but several researchers have pointed to possible climate effects.
Guinn, from there Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Universityexplains that some predict that climate change could alter the jet stream and increase wind shear, which would consequently increase the presence of turbulence
Paul Williams, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Reading, England, said in a statement Tuesday that there was “strong evidence that turbulence is increasing due to climate change.”
Williams said his research team recently discovered that, for example, clear-sky turbulence over the North Atlantic they have increased 55% since 1979. The team’s most recent projections indicate that severe turbulence in the jet streams could double or triple in the coming decades if global conditions follow predicted patterns, he said.
However, others claim that there could be other factors at play as well. Cornman notes that there could be an increase in air traffic overall, which could increase encounters with turbulence as more runways emerge, including those located in areas of higher turbulence.
Simply put, fasten your seatbelts. Turbulence can be difficult to predict, but experts insist that the first line of defense in the air is to wear your seat belt as much as possible.
“In general, airplanes are built to withstand turbulence,” says Guinn, who notes that passengers not wearing seat belts is a leading cause of in-flight turbulence injuries. Although no precaution is foolproof, wearing a seat belt greatly reduces the likelihood of serious injury.
“Buckle up,” Guinn stressed. “It is a very quick solution to avoid injuries.”