Israeli diplomacy is paying a heavy price for taking the Israeli-Palestinian conflict out of the pantry, or the study, and putting it on the table in the guest room. Overnight it became visible and accessible; And overnight he got mixed up in an internal political cauldron in countries whose degree of interest in the conflict was previously limited.
Judging by the results, we can say that Israel emerged from its relative marginalization for years. The last seven months have made it a central issue not only in the press but also in politics. Who would have thought that support for Israel would one day endanger the political status of the US President, or would cast any doubt on the ability of the British Labor Party to win an absolute majority in the upcoming elections.
There are five or so months left until the US presidential elections. Joe Biden has a considerable organizational advantage and much more money; Donald Trump has momentum, especially in a handful of developing countries, where the elections will be decided.
One state is Georgia, in the southeastern United States. Biden won there four years ago by a margin of only 12,000 votes. The polls now put him 9% behind. The public radio network NPR interviewed on Saturday a senior black politician, who was one of the main organizers of Biden’s success in Georgia four years ago. “I will never be able to vote for Trump,” he said, “but my conscience makes it difficult for me to vote for Biden.” , of Palestinian origin, said that 80 of her relatives were killed in Gaza. “I will do my best to prevent this man from ever being elected president,” she said.
Biden spoke a week ago at a small college in Georgia, whose students are all black men. There he said, probably for the first time publicly and explicitly, that he supports an “immediate ceasefire” and the return of the abductees. He was applauded. He did not mention in his speech the millions of hungry people in Sudan’s civil war, in which Arabs slaughter blacks; He did not mention the suffering of Haiti, the ‘first black republic’ on earth, which is much closer to the US than Gaza; he did not mention Ukraine. One can only assume that he adapted the text to his audience, and he assumed, or knew, that Gaza was of most interest to them Another international issue Indeed, the geography and topography of American politics have fundamentally changed, to the detriment of Israel.
The issue of the Prime Minister’s speech in Washington requires at least an eyebrow raise. Although Mr. Netanyahu will receive the most sought-after microphone in America, and will speak to millions; But his very presence will taste the division in American public opinion and sharpen it. The conservative, Trumpist right is the one inviting the prime minister to Washington. For the first time in the history of relations, Israel no longer enjoys the massive sympathy of the two major parties. The expected protests in the streets against his arrival, and perhaps gestures of opposition in the plenary of Congress itself, will highlight the extent to which Israel is losing ground. Paradoxically, this status may help President Biden, because he will remind hesitant anti-Israelites what to expect from Donald Trump.
Between Johannesburg and Cape Town
The second electoral context that interests us now is that of South Africa. On Wednesday she will vote in parliamentary elections, and the polls predict difficulties for the ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC).
It is difficult to assess the effect of the conduct of the ANC regime at the Hague Tribunal on the vote. President Cyril Ramaphosa addressed a huge rally at a football stadium in Soweto, near Johannesburg, on Saturday. Although a huge Palestinian flag was unfurled in the stadium, Ramaphosa was dealing with internal affairs, on which his rule would stand or fall. There is little doubt that his party will win first place, but according to the polls it will lose its absolute majority for the first time since the dismantling of apartheid, 30 years ago.
The 28 million voters are more interested in mass unemployment (the highest in the world), infrastructure problems (lack of electricity and water), violent crime and massive corruption in the ruling party. But at an earlier rally, in honor of May Day, Ramaphosa gave a central place to the Palestinians. One possible explanation is that the May Day rally was held in Cape Town, home to South Africa’s largest Muslim community.
The main opposition, the “Democratic Alliance” (DA), opposes the anti-Israel role of the regime. She praises neutrality. In the eyes of her critics, she is suspected of representing the interests of the white minority, even though her roots are in a white liberal party that opposed apartheid. She hovers around 25% in the polls. If the ANC needs coalition partners, it will look for them in the radical left, where the hostility to Israel is even greater.
A place of disrespect
At least four European countries, and at least five Latin American countries, are now at the head of the anti-Israel camp.
All these countries are under the rule of the left (Latin America) or the center left (Europe). Not the mountains of Europe as the mountains of Latin America. The Latin left is historically characterized by populism and extreme anti-Westernism, directed first and foremost against the US. Israel now occupies a place of disrespect alongside the US.
Historically, the dominant left in Europe is social-democratic, that is to say, it developed during a confrontation with a radical, communist and Marxist left. The socialist and social democratic parties of Western and Central Europe were mostly cordial partners of the Israeli Labor Party in all its incarnations, at least until the 1980s. Since then, the cordiality has been on the decline, also because of the change of generations, also because of the changes within the European parties, also because of their growing reservations about Israel’s policies.
Spain and Ireland represent the most problematic equation in Europe. Against its advantage, Israel is now involved to some extent in internal political polarization, which it has no direct influence on. In Spain it is a classic European polarization of the left against the immigrant-hating right, but also a polarization arising from the independence aspirations of the region of Catalonia. The socialist government, which is leading the recognition of a Palestinian state, depends on the votes of Catalan separatists who want to break up Spain.
In the last generation, Ireland has been going through historic social and cultural changes, related to the diminishing power of the Catholic Church. The political parallel of power in it is changing, and an old anti-Western nationalist leftist party, Sinn Féin, has emerged from the fringes into the center of the arena, threatening the hegemony of the two parties that currently make up the government.
“Sin Fein” is perhaps the most anti-Israel political party in Europe. Long before Iron Swords, she hinted at her intention to sever diplomatic relations with Israel. It inflames anti-Israeli feelings in public opinion, and influences the conduct of the coalition.
It’s easy to lose your temper in the face of rising hostility, but this is precisely the time to be cautious. Loud screams only reinforce a negative image. The foreign minister was wrong, when he slammed, in a tweet, the “lesson of Andalus”, 700 years of partial rule by the Muslims in Spain in the Middle Ages, at the socialists of Spain. He forgot that those years were the golden age of the Jews of Spain and Europe. It is doubtful whether an Israeli alignment with the Christian Spanish knights of the 12th century will benefit Israel in the 21st century.