The USA is worried. This is what it said this week about Vladimir Putin’s trip to North Korea. Of course, it is very possible that in seven months it will have a new-old president, who will not hesitate to fly to North Korea myself to do business with the capricious and corrupt dictatormost on earth. But right now the US is being targeted by people whose experience of the last 75 years has taught them about the danger posed by North Korea to world peace.
What does each of the two dictators have to gain from this week’s summit? Vladimir Putin relies on North Korean munitions for his war machine. According to a State Department fact sheet in Washington, between September 2023 and February 2024, North Korea transferred 10,000 containers of ammunition to Russia. Russia also used North Korean missiles against targets in Ukraine, although their number was small.
So what brings Putin to Pyongyang, apart from the gentlemanly desire to thank his benefactor Kim Jong Un, who is starving his people to help Russia? This question is exactly the source of concern in Washington, and it should concern everyone who is in any way affected by Russia’s moves. This of course includes Israel.
Russia is in an ominous solitude. The ‘peace conference’ that Ukraine convened in the Swiss Alps last week illustrated this loneliness. One hundred countries will be represented at the conference. It was attended by 60 heads of state and prime ministers. And although Russia’s absence reduced the practical importance of the class, it reminded that Russia has no friends in the industrialized democracies, and the doors to the major markets in the West continue to slam.
No, it didn’t collapse
No, Russia’s economy did not collapse under the weight of sanctions. It recorded economic growth last year higher than that of almost any industrialized country in the West. Chinese goods fill the shelves, which were previously loaded with Western products.
And even though Russia’s losses are enormous, and even though it lost incredible amounts of military equipment; Although it is losing its fleet in the Black Sea and having difficulty protecting military installations in the Crimea, it still has the upper hand on the battlefield. She may only have to extend her spirit until Donald Trump enters the White House and until Marine Le Pen’s delegation enters the prime minister’s seat in Paris. Ukraine’s sources of military aid may be about to close.
Furthermore, there are signs of considerable internal weakening in Ukraine. Videos show army recruiters clashing with panicked dodgers on the streets of major cities. Perhaps the air is about to leave the sails of battered and exhausted Ukraine.
But maybe not. Perhaps the American weapons flowing into its warehouses, especially the ballistic ones, will form a protective wall. Perhaps improved air defense will put an end to the enormous damage that Iranian missiles and UAVs are inflicting on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. In the coming months, F-16s are about to enter service. Although there is no evidence that they will fundamentally change the balance of forces, partly because of the difficulty of protecting the airports where But there is at least the potential of slowing the Russian momentum.
Even if we make the most pessimistic assumption, and compare before our eyes Putin reviewing his army on Kraschatyk Boulevard in Kiev, Russia will not escape its isolation. It will put Europe on its feet. There is already talk in the UK, Germany and France about renewing elements of compulsory conscription.
Putin’s heart’s desire
Putin’s main goal is a fatal blow to the collective security of the West. Last week, in a speech at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Moscow, Putin declared that “we are watching the collapse of the Euro-Atlantic security system”, meaning NATO led by the US. He called for it to be replaced by “a system of bilateral and multilateral guarantees for collective security in Eurasia”.
“Eurasia” is a favorite combination of nationalist and anti-Western Russian intellectuals, who claim that Russia will acquire global preeminence by virtue of partnership with Asian allies. China is of course the main ally there, and that is what is meant by “bilateral guarantees”. But Russia knows that bilateralism that includes China will reduce Russia to the status of a secondary partner. Putin announced in his speech that he ordered his Foreign Ministry to enter into talks with additional potential partners. North Korea is one of them. He is about to announce in Pyongyang a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ with North Korea. Similar language is used by Russia in its relations with Iran.
In October, Russia is set to host the annual BRICS summit, an association of nations that Russia and China created as a counterweight to the G-7 group of industrialized democracies. India, Brazil and South Africa are also members. Last summer, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, Argentina and the United Arab Emirates were also invited to join. This diversity hints at the lack of a clear common denominator, apart from the desire to be seen and heard in a prominent forum.
Russia does try to portray BRICS as a member of a new world order, but not all the members are eager to play such a role, or even be portrayed as playing a role. Their presence in BRICS has less to do with Russia and more with China. Thailand, for example, which is about to join BRICS, maintains an annual trade of 135 billion dollars with China. Its trade with Russia in 2023 was 1.5 billion dollars.
“Half Alliance”
Could it be that the expected announcement from Pyongyang about a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’ suggests that Putin is encouraging Kim Jong Un to undermine the status quo on the Korean Peninsula and the East China Sea in return for Japan? Kim’s willingness to do so is not in doubt, but he needs technological and industrial assistance, and he also needs to feed his subjects.
Putin and Kim will not be able to threaten the status quo in Northeast Asia without China’s consent. It also views with a bad eye western collective security arrangements near its borders. But unlike Putin, she has a lot to lose. While Putin fantasizes about the dissolution of the “Euro-Atlantic system”, China is trying to improve its relations with the members of this system, including Western Europe and Australia. After years of being cold, the Chinese Prime Minister arrived this week for an official visit to Australia, full of demonstrable gestures of friendship (panda bears, for example).
The front pages of the Chinese Communist Party newspaper on Wednesday tasted the usual collection of exhortations against friendship with Australia and the European Union. The enthusiasm to destroy the West is perhaps a little less contagious than Putin had hoped, although another vision for the time being.
A concerned South Korean newspaper announces the upgrading of Russia’s relations with North Korea
In South Korea, on the other hand, the concern is evident. A headline in a Seoul newspaper on Wednesday: “Putin upgrades North Korea-Russia relations to a ‘semi-alliance’, a close and dangerous relationship.”