The French will head to the polls on Sunday. It’s because of the president Emmanuel Macron for the decision to dissolve the French National Assembly, i.e. the lower house of the parliament.
Macron announced his decision unexpectedly on the night of the European elections. He won the election in France Marine Le Penin and Jordan Bardellan led by the far-right National Coalition. It received 31 percent of the vote.
Macron’s own Renaissance party came in second place in the election, but only received a modest 15 percent of the vote.
The decision to hold early elections may have been because Macron wanted the initiative to come from him. This allows him to present himself as an actor who defies the rise of the far right and measures its real support.
If Macron had not acted immediately himself, he would have had the following weeks to respond to the far-right’s demands for new parliamentary elections. He would have been the underdog.
The election method can lead to tactical voting
What can Macron win with his surprising move?
There are two theories for this. The first is that he does not believe that the National Alliance will win the European elections again in the National Assembly elections.
There are two rounds of parliamentary elections in France. The candidates who did best in the first round get to the second round. Whoever gets the most votes wins.
Macron may be counting on isolating the far right. Voters of other parties gather their strength behind the most likely passer in their constituency with tactical voting. Citizens therefore do not vote for their own favorite, but for the candidate who has the best chance of winning over the candidate of the National Alliance.
Another theory is that Macron wants the National Coalition to win. He wants to show what the opposition populist party will do after coming to power. The goal would therefore be to reduce the support of the far right by giving it political responsibility for difficult decisions.
For example, France is struggling with a significant national debt. The European Commission is of the opinion that the country should be taken to the excessive deficit procedure.
The plot of Macron’s couplet would therefore be to prepare for the 2027 presidential election. Macron can no longer run for office himself at that time, but he would like to make sure that Marine Le Pen does not become president.
Will there be a difficult “cohabitation”?
Based on Gallup polls it seems that the National Alliance could win the first round of the elections.
If it also won the second round, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella would become prime minister. In France, “la cohabitation”, i.e. cohabitation or cohabitation, would form. In France, it is a term for a situation where the president of the republic is on a different political side than the prime minister. There have been three such governments in French history.
Cohabitation would make the rest of Macron’s term as president difficult. Although the president has a lot of power in France and represents the country at EU tables, for example, he still needs the support of the parliament for many actions in practice.
The National Assembly has power over the French budget, for example. Therefore, the coming to power of the National Alliance could make it difficult to support Ukraine, for example.
On the other hand, the National Alliance does not seem to be able to form a majority on its own. In the first round, its support has been in the range of 30–36 percent.
Macron and Bardella have argued over who will ultimately appoint France’s EU commissioner. Traditionally, it has been done by the president. Bardella has nevertheless think sothat the decision should be made in the National Assembly.
Football players appeal to the people
The beloved French national football team is currently playing in the European football championships.
Team captain Kylian Mbappé and many other players have visibly taken a stand on the election. They oppose racism and the National Alliance.
“I urge all young people to go vote and become aware of the importance of the situation. I want to carry this [peli]shirt with pride in the future”, Mbappé totes.
Striker Marcus Thuram said he heard about the result of the European elections after the France-Canada game on June 9.
“We were all shocked in the dressing room. We must urge everyone to vote and fight every day so that the National Coalition does not win.”
Fact
French elections
After his party’s poor European election result, French President Emmanuel Macron decided to dissolve the National Assembly and hold new parliamentary elections.
The elections of the National Assembly, i.e. the lower house of the Parliament, are two-part. The first round will be held on Sunday, June 30, and the second round will be held a week later, on Sunday, June 7.
The 577 members of the National Assembly are elected from constituencies, each of which has a population of approximately 100,000.
Candidates who have received at least 12.5 percent of the votes in their constituency can go to the second round of the election. The second round is won by the candidate who receives the most votes.
According to Gallup polls, it seems that the far-right National Alliance could win the election.
This would form a “cohabitation government” (la cohabitation), where the president of the republic is on a different political side than the prime minister. That would make the rest of Macron’s term as president difficult.