The French will vote today, Sunday, in the first round of early parliamentary elections. Elections are held because the president Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly after the results of the European elections were revealed.
The most recent one announced on Friday Ifop Fiducial’s Gallup according to the extreme right ie Marine Le Penin The national coalition would get 36 percent support. According to Gallup, the coalition of the center-left and the greens is getting 28 percent of the votes, and Macron’s center-right coalition about 20 percent.
An analysis company that analyzes political risks Eurasia Group Researcher specializing in European politics Mujtaba Rahman says that he already considers it certain that the “anti-European” National Coalition will become the largest group in the National Assembly for the first time in French history.
“The last polls before the French parliamentary elections are alarming for Emmanuel Macron, Ukraine and the EU,” he writes message service in X.
A senior researcher at the workshop Bruegel Jean Pisani-Ferry says that the National Alliance’s biggest problem is its attitude towards Russia and Europe. He reminds In an analysis he wrote for The Economistthat Marine Le Pen has, among other things, promised to organize a referendum on the primacy of the French constitution over European law.
Also director of Eurasia Group, professor Ian Bremmer estimates that, even in the best case, France faces a long political deadlock and turmoil, which could have massive consequences for the future of Europe and Ukraine.
Pisani-Ferry also predicts that the National Coalition, after coming to power, might try to steer the direction of European politics, especially by blocking aid to Ukraine and stopping EU expansion. In particular, French support for Ukraine would be at stake, as the National Assembly has a large say in the French budget.
Candidates who receive at least 12.5 percent of the votes in their constituency will advance from the first round of the election. The second round, which will be held in a week, is won by the candidate from the constituency who receives the most votes.
If the National Coalition wins the election, as indicated by the polls, the young protégé of Marine Le Pen, 28 years old, will probably become the prime minister of France Jordan Bardella. Le Pen herself is already focusing on the 2027 presidential elections.
The polling stations close in France at 20:00 Finnish time.