Gold price this week is difficult to forecast

At the end of last week’s trading session, spot gold prices were almost unchanged, closing at $2,326 an ounce. Overall, prices increased by 4% in the second quarter, marking three consecutive quarters of increase.

The market last week had many highly volatile sessions, with amplitudes of tens of USD. Immediately after falling to a 2-week low at 2,297 USD, the price reversed to 2,328 USD the next day. Precious metals are still affected by familiar factors, such as US inflation data, USD prices and US government bond yields.

Next week, survey of Kitco News With bank managers, analysts, and investors, the trend of gold is unclear. 50% decided to stay out of the market and observe, only 17% predicted a price decrease and 33% expected a price increase.

Alex Kuptsikevich – analyst at FxPro is one of those who are pessimistic about the market next week. The main reason is that the price has fallen below the 50-day moving average.

“Gold and related markets are facing a dual challenge. One is weak economic data (slow growth and low inflation). Two is the increasingly dovish stance of the Fed. This combination could trigger a sell-off,” he said.

According to data released on June 28, inflation in the US in May was almost unchanged compared to the previous month. This is the first time in half a year that this figure has not increased.

Meanwhile, Marc Chandler – Director of Bannockburn Global Forex – said that the rebound in gold prices after a sharp decline this week shows that the market can continue to go up. “The price has recovered after falling below 2,300 USD, towards the 2,340 USD mark. The market has increased for 5 consecutive months,” he explained.

Kevin Grady – Director of Phoenix Futures and Options – forecasts that trading volume this week will be thin because investors stop to observe more. However, that also means that fluctuations will be greater.

“No one wants to take risks now. I think this week will be quite quiet, unless there are geopolitical fluctuations like Ukraine or Middle East tensions escalating,” he said.

Everett Millman, analyst at Gainesville Coins, also believes that gold will be stuck in the current price range until something unexpected shakes up the market.

“Many people consider gold an investment channel to replace stocks. But when the stock market continues to rise as well as it is now, gold will be held back. However, even the most optimistic people know that stock prices will still fluctuate. facing many challenges, especially the US presidential election later this year, these factors will cause gold prices to continuously increase and decrease,” he concluded.

Next week, the US financial market will be closed for the National Day holiday on July 4, and will receive many important data such as the June employment report and production index.