“First place”: an unprecedented achievement for the populist right in the French elections

An unprecedented achievement for the populist right in France: according to samples published this evening (Sunday) in the country, about 34% of the French voted for the bloc led by Marine Le Pen’s “National Union” party, compared to 29% who voted for a broad left bloc and 22% only those who voted for the Center Bloc, led by incumbent President Emmanuel Macron. The result is a sharp defeat for Macron, who is supposed to remain in his position as president until 2027, and who called for snap elections three weeks ago in order to consolidate his political power – and lost.

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All eyes are now on seeing how these general support rates in the public will translate into seats in the National Assembly, which has 577 seats, and what are the chances of the “National Union” winning the second and final round that will take place on Sunday with at least 289 seats, which will guarantee it an absolute majority in parliament and the formation of a government. Models on the French TV channels, which try to estimate how the French will vote in the second round based on today’s vote and the situation in each constituency, showed that the party is currently not predicted to have such a majority, and will receive between 240 and 270 seats.

Another achievement was recorded by the left bloc, which unites social democrats, greens, extreme left and communists, and quickly united to compete in the elections. It is expected to have between 180 and 200 seats. The bloc in which Macron’s party (“Renaissance”) ran is expected to receive between 60 and 90 seats only. The “republicans” on the right, at least those who did not run in a bloc with Le Pen (the party split a little after the announcement of the elections) are expected to win several dozen seats (between 30 and 50). According to current forecasts, the parliament that will be elected will lead to political stagnation.

Some of the candidates of the left have already announced that they will withdraw from the re-run

In the next few hours, the results will be known in each electoral district (which includes 165 thousand voters), and the 4,000 candidates who were in the first round will be “displaced” in favor of those who qualified for the second round. This, in case he did not win by more than 50% in the round that took place today. Any candidate who received more than 12.5% ​​of the votes qualifies for the second round. Unlike the previous elections, where there were only eight such three-way races, now there are expected to be many more. Some candidates are expected to withdraw, and announce support for their opponents. In particular, one should pay attention to the association against candidates of the “National Union”, which has never been in power in France and arouses a lot of antagonism on the left. Some of the candidates of the left bloc have already announced in advance that they will withdraw from the re-run next week, and will transfer their support to the center bloc.

But there is no doubt that the French National Union party (formerly the “National Front”) proved today that the European Parliament elections were not a protest vote, and that it has broad support throughout France. “We beat Macron’s bloc,” Le Pen celebrated the results after the polls were published, and called on voters to go to the polls next week to give her party – led by political meteor Jordan Bardella – an absolute majority in parliament. Both she and far-left leader Jean-Luc Melanchon said the results were a defeat for Macron. The president himself hastened to call for a “front against the extreme right” in the next round of elections in about a week.

The voting rate in these elections far exceeded the voting rates in previous elections, and was close to 70%, compared to less than 48% about two years ago. According to data, this is the highest voter turnout in four decades. Usually, the turnout in the second round is similar to that in the first round, with a difference of a few percentage points.

Today’s elections took place just three weeks after French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly and announced snap elections. He did this immediately after the publication of the results of the elections to the European Parliament, in which the National Union led by Bardella received about 32%, compared to 17%. He hoped that the French public would “come to its senses” from what he called a “protest vote”, but the results today show that the populist right is ripe for power in France. Macron’s political bet, according to the visible results, failed.