Trade overview: current reports, trends, indices, stock prices, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities and analyst recommendations
17:15
After the green opening, Wall Street trades in a mixed trend. While gains in the Dow Jones continue, the S&P 500 is now down 0.1%, and the Nasdaq is down 0.2%.
The stock of Nvidia chips continues the decline of the last few days, and is now losing 3%.
Slight increases are recorded in the crypto market. The Bitcoin currency rises by 1.7% to the level of 62.6 thousand dollars per unit. Ether also adds 1.7%, and the currency stands at 3.4 thousand dollars.
16:30
Wall Street opens the trading week in green. The S&P 500 index rises by 3%, the Nasdaq adds 0.2% and the Dow Jones index rises by 0.4%. Today’s trading opens the second half of 2024, after the first half closed on Friday with nice gains. Since the beginning of the year, the Nasdaq index” K climbed by 17%, the S&P 500 index rose by about 15% and the Dow Jones index settled for a more modest increase of 3.7%.
There are sharp increases in the US debt market. The yield on the 10-year US government bond now jumps by 10 basis points to 4.44%, and the yield on the two-year bonds increases by 6 points to 4.77%.
Trade in Europe also continues a positive trend, led by the French CAC index which jumps by about 1.8%. The DAX index rises by 0.6% and the British FTSE index with a small increase of 0.2%.
15:27
similrv Acquires a company from Switzerland, 42matters. The amount of the purchase was not disclosed. The acquired company provides data and analysis on the world of applications. Similrave is trading at a market value of 611 million dollars after a 46% increase in the stock in the first half.
15:11
Trading in Europe is conducted with price increases, and especially the French CAC index which jumps by about 1.6% and this after according to samples published yesterday (Sunday) in the country, about 34% of the French voted for the bloc led by Marine Le Pen’s “National Union” party, compared to 29 % who voted for the broad left bloc and only 22% who voted for the center bloc, led by the incumbent President Emmanuel Macron. The result is a sharp defeat for Macron.
The Dax and FTSE indices are now trading up about 0.4%.
On Wall Street, the third quarter of the year will open in the afternoon and the futures contracts are traded pre-trade with small increases of about 0.3% in the leading indices.
14:21
The Israeli Autotech company Locust Robotics Today reports on a milestone in its business activity: the company was chosen by a large car manufacturer (whose name was not reported) to develop radar systems for serial production. The company reported that one of the ten largest car manufacturers in the world chose Arba’s chips for the development of next-generation radar systems, and stated that the preparations for the development will begin immediately.
As you may recall, Arba Robotics recently issued convertible bonds in the local stock exchange in the amount of NIS 113 million – but the money was not transferred to its treasury but to an escrow account. In order for the money to be transferred to the company, two conditions were set: the first is winning a tender to supply its products as the sole chip supplier for radar imaging to one of the ten largest car manufacturers (including, for example, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Ford or Toyota); and that the average closing price of its shares on Nasdaq for 30 consecutive trading days will not be less than $3.1 and the trading turnover will not be less than 100 thousand shares per day. The conditions must be realized by the end of March 2025. As of today, the share price on Nasdaq is $1.91 And Arba’s market value reaches 154 million dollars. The report from today is a significant part towards meeting the first condition.
13:03
Trading in Europe is being conducted this morning with price increases, and especially the French CAC index which jumps by about 1.3%% and this after according to samples published yesterday (Sunday) in the country, about 34% of the French voted for the bloc led by Marine Le Pen’s “National Union” party, Compared to 29% who voted for a broad left bloc and only 22% who voted for the center bloc, led by incumbent President Emmanuel Macron. The result is a sharp defeat for Macron.
The Dax and FTSE indices are now trading up about 0.2%.
11:41
Casper Koechly, economist at Julius Baer commented on yesterday’s French elections, which were characterized by the highest turnout in the first round since 1997, shaking the existing majority structure in the French Parliament.
“The bond and euro markets reacted negatively to the announcement of the snap election, but debt sustainability should not be an immediate problem given that the French government is currently paying low interest rates on its outstanding debt. The results of the first round reduced the chance of an absolute majority of the right or the left, and further reduced the risks of implementing spending-driven fiscal policy changes. Accordingly, the euro strengthened in response, moving back towards our target of EUR/USD 1.08, reducing some of the downside associated with election risks.”
10:32
Trading in Europe opened this morning with price increases, and especially the French CAC index which jumped by about 3% and this after according to samples published yesterday (Sunday) in the country, about 34% of the French voted for the bloc led by Marine Le Pen’s “National Union” party, compared to 29% who voted for the broad left bloc and only 22% who voted for the center bloc, led by the incumbent President Emmanuel Macron. The result is a sharp defeat for Macron.
The strengthening of the right-wing parties in the elections to the European Parliament has so far led to an increase in the risk premium of several member states of the Eurozone as measured by the ten-year government bond yield compared to the equivalent bond yield of the German government.
The German DAX index and the British FTSE rise by 1% and 0.6% respectively.
08:49
Trading in Asia opened this morning with slight declines against the background of the publication of business activity data in China. The Shanghai index rises by 0.6% following the production activity index which indicated a decrease in June for the second time in a row, however, the private sector indicated an increase. In Hong Kong there will be no trading today, the Nikkei index rises by 0.1%.
The futures contracts on Wall Street now indicate increases of about 0.2% in the leading indices. In the afternoon, a shortened trading week will begin in the USA on the occasion of Independence Day in the USA (holiday on Thursday and shortened trading on Wednesday). This is also the first day of the third quarter and the second half of the year.
The first half of the year brightened up for stock investors. The leading indices continued the positive trend of last year and broke records – some several times. Since the beginning of the year, the Nasdaq index climbed by 17%, the S&P 500 index rose by about 15% and the Dow Jones index settled for a more modest increase of 3.7%.
Last Friday, a red lock was recorded on Wall Street, the Dow Jones index fell by about 0.1%, the S&P 500 index fell by about 0.4% and the Nasdaq closed down by 0.7%.
As mentioned, the last weekend was one of the worst in the history of Nike . The sports clothing retailer reported on Friday about a 10% drop in its revenues in the quarter and lowered its sales forecast for the entire year 2024. The stock plunged by 20% in one day and erased 27 billion dollars from its value.
Trump Media the company of US presidential contender Donald Trump fell by about 4% after rising in early trading, against the background of the presidential confrontation that took place between Thursday and Friday night between him and US President Biden.
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Oil prices traded slightly lower at the end of last week. The price of a barrel of the Brent type was 84.8 dollars and the price of a barrel of the WTI type was around 81.5 dollars.
In his weekly review, Gil Bafman, Bank Leumi’s Chief Economist, noted that “in the short term, and as long as there is no significant global deterioration in the security arena, it appears that the continuation of the high volume of oil production in North America, combined with the promotion of additional energy projects and the expansion of the future production of The OPEC+ organization will work to increase global supply.”
Over time, a decrease in demand for oil and distillates is expected, therefore Laumi expects “a decrease in the price of oil, and on the other hand an increase in the price of natural gas, as well as uranium”. When core inflation dropped from 2.8% at an annual rate to 2.6%.
Matan Shetrit, the chief economist of the Phoenix Group, wrote that “this is indeed another step in the right direction, but we will recall that the recent interest rate decisions and statements by senior Fed officials show that they would prefer to wait and see several months of convincing data before the market committee would consider reducing the interest rate.”
Looking at the week ahead, although the Wall Street trading week will be shortened, a host of data or events will affect the market.
The most important figure will only be published on Friday – as on the first Friday of every month, the monthly unemployment figures will be published in the US, which will shed additional light on the timing of the interest rate cut. The expectation is for an addition of 182 thousand jobs, much less than the previous month – 272 thousand jobs.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak this week at the central bank conference he will hold in Portugal, on Wednesday the minutes of the Fed’s interest rate meeting held two weeks ago will be published.
In Europe, there is significant uncertainty: according to samples published yesterday (Sunday) in the country, about 34% of the French voted for the bloc led by Marine Le Pen’s “National Union” party, compared to 29% who voted for a broad left bloc and only 22% who voted to the Center Bloc, led by incumbent President Emmanuel Macron. The result is a sharp defeat for Macron.
The strengthening of the right-wing parties in the elections to the European Parliament resulted in an increase in the risk premium of several member states of the Eurozone as measured by the ten-year government bond yield compared to the equivalent bond yield of the German government.
Despite the good half of the year for the US flagship index, the S&P 500, which rose 14.5%, not everyone is optimistic about the future.
In J.P. Morgan, for example, is quite pessimistic – they expect the index to drop in the coming months.
The bank’s chief strategist, Marko Kolanovic, reiterated his bearish position regarding the index and advises investors to reduce exposure to stocks: “With a high probability, the macro picture moves away from the pursuit of a soft landing”, Kolanovic predicts an economic crisis or high inflation that will force the Fed to maintain high interest rates, ” Therefore, the fear of a hard landing is increasing”, the bank expects only one interest rate cut this year.
Kolanovich claims that there are a number of risks, and these include political and geopolitical risks, a centralized stock market, the excessive rise of meme stocks and cryptocurrencies, while economic indicators point to a slowdown or recession, “and yet, stocks are trading around their highs.” The bank expects the index to end the year at 4,200, about 22% less than its current level.
JP Morgan are not alone. Petr Brezin, chief strategist at research firm BCA research told Market Watch that he had revised down his forecast for the S&P 500 to 3,750 points, even less than J.P. Morgan (4,200). Barzin also expects that the US economy will enter an unexpected recession, when? “At the end of this year or at the beginning of next year”, he also expects that the recession will spread to Europe as well.
Barzin predicts that the slowdown in the labor market will increase quickly and weigh on consumer spending, he points to bank data that already shows lower incomes and declining savings, and that following the consumers, businesses will also reduce their investments.