UNCTAD: $32 trillion world trade in 2024

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) confirmed the positive trends in global trade in the first half of this year 2024, supported by a 1% increase in goods trade in the first quarter of last year, as well as a 1.5% growth in services trade for the same period (on an annual basis).

In its latest monthly review, the organization expected, in its report “World Trade Recovers, but Unevenly,” that world trade would grow by 2% in the first half of 2024, with this increase expected to add about $250 billion to trade in goods and about $100 billion to trade in services ($350 billion in goods and services) in the first half of 2024, compared to the second half of 2023.

If positive trends continue, global trade in 2024 will reach nearly $32 trillion, however, it is unlikely to exceed the record level recorded in 2022.

The organization explained among its most prominent indicators: During the first quarter of 2024, trade grew in developing countries, and between the countries of the South, those recorded in developed countries, driven by increased exports from China, India and the United States, while Europe and Africa did not record any increase in exports.

The organization indicated that global trade related to green energy sectors and artificial intelligence products is witnessing strong demand, compared to other products and sectors.

UNCTAD maintained its positive outlook for 2024, as geopolitical issues and industrial policies push to reshape global trade patterns.

Regarding inflation, the organization indicated that it is positive – remaining below 2%, in the first half of 2024.

Overall, moderating global inflation and improving economic growth prospects point to an easing of the downward macroeconomic trends that have characterized most of 2023. In addition, demand for products related to the energy transition and artificial intelligence should contribute to trade, growth indicators for 2024.

Moreover, there is a possibility of a cut in interest rates in the United States later this year, and the resulting weakness of the dollar could give the United States an additional boost to global trade.

However, the outlook for global trade in 2024 remains vulnerable to ongoing negative and geopolitical developments; tensions, rising shipping costs and emerging industrial policies could significantly impact global trade.