The last forecast before the second round of early French parliamentary elections promises at least some sort of electoral victory for the far-right National Coalition. Gallup company Ipsosin according to the survey Marine Le Penin the personified National Alliance is getting 175–205 seats in the National Assembly of 577 representatives.
The left-wing coalition is predicted to get 145-175 and the French president Emmanuel Macron 118-148 seats of the centrist coalition gathered around the Renaissance party.
If the final election results match the polls, the future French National Assembly would consist of three major political groups, none of which would have an absolute majority.
The election tactics during the second round have become hot. Le Monde magazine says, that 131 of the left-wing coalition candidates who advanced to the second round have withdrawn from the candidacy. In the ranks of the Central Alliance, the corresponding number is 83. The withdrawn candidates thus aim to play against the National Alliance by bequeathing their votes to other allies.
A researcher specializing in European politics at Eurasia Group, which analyzes political risks Mujtaba Rahman estimates that if the polls are correct, the withdrawal of Macron’s coalition and the candidates of the leftist coalition has been a huge success and will turn the electoral battle into a battle against the extreme right.
According to experts, the result will almost certainly be an election result on the basis of which it will be difficult or even impossible to form a government.
“The only alternative may be a technocratic cabinet made up of senior civil servants, businessmen, academics and trade union leaders to govern France until new elections are constitutionally possible in 12 months’ time. It could mean that France avoids far-right rule, but instead plunges into at least a year or perhaps three years of confusion before the 2027 presidential election,” commented Rahman in social media.
Emmanuel Macron’s position as French president may also become more difficult if the National Assembly no longer finds sufficient support.
The outcome of the French elections is being followed exceptionally closely in the financial markets and in the European Central Bank, the ECB. Interest rates on the country’s government bonds have clearly risen ever since Macron dissolved the National Assembly right after the European elections.
“According to the latest polls, the outcome of the election could be almost anything: a minority government, a broad centrist coalition or a technocratic interim government. In a deadlock situation, a temporary government could be established, which would include the most moderate eudsts from the National Alliance and Macron’s Renaissance and the left. However, that would be highly dubious and would likely lead to new elections a year from now. It is also possible that the French president will resign after the elections. It is clear that France will hardly get a stable government”, the economists of the asset management company Pictet list the concerns of the market and bankers in their review.
Pictet summarizes the situation by saying that the only certainty in the French election result is instability.
The situation is not helped by the fact that the future French government will have to make difficult financial decisions, as the country’s budget deficit is over five percent and the national debt is growing.
The credit rating agency Scope also warns that the French election result will affect the future policy of the entire EU. France is the second largest member state of the EU and one of the founding countries of the Union.
“Critically, political developments in France are likely to have a negative impact on the scope and pace of the EU’s reform agenda, including progress on deepening the Single Market, Capital Markets Union and the size and priorities of the next EU budget. The policy priorities of the next French government could also test the credibility of the EU’s recently adopted fiscal policy,” Scope analysts state in their report.