Although at the start of the week some of the tension that dominated the market at the beginning of July seems to have subsided, The blue dollar continues its upward path.
This Monday it increases by 30 pesos and reaches $ 1.450 This marks a new nominal record for the informal rate. The previous record was $1,430, which was reached on July 2. So far this year, it has risen $44%.
While the blue dollar rebounds, financial dollars fall slightly. The MEP, which is traded on the Buenos Aires stock exchange, falls 0.9% to $ 1.383 and the cash with liquidation (CCL), the way in which companies are dollarized, fell 0.6%, to $ 1.384,5.
This advance of the informal sector brings the exchange rate gap to 57%, an alarm light that removes the chances that the government moves towards eliminating the restriction in the medium term.
Behind the rise of the blue plays in part the bonus effect, This is why some savers are channelling the extra pesos through this route, even though it is the most expensive option of all. But given the perception that the exchange rate is behind, some buyers prefer to get their hands on bills now, either because they have pesos that they cannot launder to buy through the MEP or because they do not want to wait for the deadlines for the transaction to be accredited, which can take up to 48 hours.
The proximity of the winter holidays could be one of the drivers of the increased demand for the blue, despite the fact that at $1,450 it is only 45 pesos from the card dollar, which means The difference between one payment method and the other is only 3%.
The blue is a marginal market that moves around US$ 5 million per day, one-tenth of what is traded in the financial dollar segment.
“The market remains on the lookout any news regarding the exchange ratein a context in which dollar flows continue to decline,” said Juan Manuel Franco, Chief Economist of Grupo SBS.
“In addition, in terms of rates, the focus will be on the tender for debt in pesos, which this time has no maximum issue and no minimum rate for Lecaps, unlike previous tenders. Also, investors will be attentive to official news regarding the regulation of the new fiscal liquidity bills that will be administered by the Central Bank but will be a liability of the Treasury. Finally, coupons and amortizations of sovereign bonds in dollars will be paid, and we will be attentive to the dynamics of post-payment prices, especially in terms of where that flow is directed: reinvestment or other assets,” said Franco.
Bonds and stocks rise
Shares are rebounding on the Buenos Aires stock exchange, where the Merval index is up 0.5% and completes an increase of 1.6% so far this month.
Most ADRs in New York also rose, led by Mercado Libre with 2.2% and YPF with 2%.
As for bonds, most dollar-denominated securities are trading higher, with gains of up to 2.3% in the case of the AL29. The rest of the securities are up around 0.5% and This brings the country risk to 1,514 basis points.