According to Airbus, the aircraft fleet will double worldwide in the next 20 years thanks to economic and demographic growth, particularly in Asia.
In its annual projections, published a few days before the Farnborough Air Show (United Kingdom), the European aeronautics giant estimates that the market will need 42,430 new commercial aircraft with more than 100 seats and cargo by 2043, an increase of 3.9% compared to the projections for 2042 published last year.
This would bring the global fleet to 48,230 aircraft from 24,260 at the end of 2023. Only 5,800 of the planes currently flying would still be in service in 20 years, and 18,460 aircraft would therefore replace those that have reached the end of their life in the meantime.
The remaining 23,970 aircraft would meet growth in air travel demand, expected to reach 8.4% annually by 2027, due to a post-Covid-19 catch-up, and 3.6% per year on average between 2027 and 2043, according to Airbus.
Average increase in global GDP of 2.6% and international trade
Of the 42,430 aircraft that would be delivered between 2024 and 2043, Asia-Pacific would take the lion’s share: 19,510 units, including 9,520 for China alone. Europe would absorb 8,050 and North America, another mature market, 7,100.
“China and India, and more broadly Asia-Pacific as a whole, will fuel growth, further shifting the center of gravity of the airline industry to Asia,” the aircraft manufacturer said.
According to Airbus, domestic air traffic in China is expected to quickly overtake the United States in volume, growing at an annual rate of 5.1% between 2027 and 2043, a figure that will reach 6.9% in India, but on lower volumes. Another dynamic region is the Middle East, where Saudis will fly twice as much on average in 20 years as they do today, according to Airbus.
Some 80% of these 42,430 new aircraft would be single-aisle aircraft, such as the Airbus A320neo or Boeing 737MAX, and 20% would be wide-body aircraft such as the Airbus A350, Boeing 787 or 777X.
On the freight side, Airbus also sees the fleet of cargo aircraft increasing by half by 2043 to 3,360 units compared to 2,220 today, with 2,470 new aircraft to be delivered.
To put forward these figures, Airbus bases its analysis of the market for the next 20 years on the following assumptions: an average increase in global GDP of 2.6% and international trade of 3.1% per year, but also an increase in the middle class of 1.7 billion people, i.e. more than the net growth of the world population (+1.3 billion).