Trade overview: current reports, trends, indices, stock prices, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities and analyst recommendations
15:30
A few minutes ago, the consumer price index for July was published in the US and it stood at 2.9%, a decrease compared to 3% last month, the monthly index rose by 0.2% in line with expectations and compared to a 0.1% drop in prices recorded in June.
Core inflation excluding food and energy was 3.2% compared to the expected 3.2% on an annual basis, slightly higher than last month, and 0.2% compared to June, as expected and slightly higher than last month, 0.1%.
We will recall that yesterday the producer price index in the US indicated a smaller slowdown than expected.
Further evidence that inflation is slowing or at least not accelerating should confirm expectations that the Federal Reserve will start lowering interest rates next month. How much does the figure matter? Recently Fed Chairman Grom Powell said that the Fed will not decide on the interest rate outline based on one figure or another, but will examine the economy as a whole, two days after he said that a weak employment report was published and unemployment rose to 4.3% and with it the chances of a recession even if inflation remains sticky
15:13
Investors are waiting for the publication of the US inflation data for the month of July which is expected to be published at 15:30 Israel time. According to the forecasts, the annual inflation rate is expected to be 3%.
US futures are now trading steady.
In the US debt market, government bond yields are falling slightly. The 10-year yield is down to 3.83% and the two-year yield is trading around 3.92%.
14:54
The Israeli fintech company Risquiped Raised its annual EBITDA forecast (earnings excluding interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) from $12-18 million to $13-19 million. At the same time, the revenue forecast range was expanded downward, from $323-325 million to $320-325 million.
The company recorded in the second quarter revenues of 78.7 million dollars, a growth of 8.2% compared to the corresponding quarter. The net loss was reduced by 43.7% to 9.5 million dollars and the EBITDA amounted to 2.3 million dollars, compared to a negative EBITDA of 4.6 million dollars in the corresponding quarter. Ido Gal, co-founder and CEO of the company, said that Recifeid is well positioned to take market shares and that there is a great demand for its products.
At the same time, a share Global-E is trading lower in pre-trade after the Israeli fintech company reduced its annual revenue forecast. The company expects revenues of 710-750 million dollars, compared to a previous forecast of 733-773 million dollars. At the same time, the EBITDA forecast for 2024 was updated upwards to 127-143 million dollars, compared to 124-140 million dollars in the previous forecast.
In the second quarter, the company’s revenues were about 166 million dollars, a growth of 26% from the corresponding quarter and higher than the analysts’ forecasts. The net loss attributable to shareholders was $22.4 million, a reduction compared to $35.5 million in the corresponding quarter, and EBITDA amounted to $31.3 million, compared to $21 million in the corresponding quarter.
13:41
Joaquin Tholl, an economist at the Swiss bank EFG, refers to the inflation data in England:
“Inflation data in the UK indicate a 2.2% increase for the month of July, just short of the Bank of England’s target of a 2% increase.
“The main driver for the increase stems from the drop in oil prices in recent months, which was lower than last year. The rate of decline in the prices of products and goods in July continues, but at a lower rate than in previous months with a decrease of 0.6% (YoY) as of July.
“On the other hand, the rate of service prices, one of the indicators for evaluating inflationary pressure by the Monetary Committee of the Central Bank of England, fell to 5.2% (YoY) in July, compared to the 5.5% increase recorded in recent months. The main reason for this was the drop in prices in the areas of hotels and restaurants, which in the past were among the main factors for the increase in the prices of the services industry. Inflation data will be weighed in the Bank of England’s next policy decision in the coming months, along with labor market data released yesterday, August 14th.
“The monetary committee is expected to treat the drop in unemployment data from 4.4% to 4.2% in a cautious and reserved manner and take into account the known problems in collecting information on the workforce through surveys.
“The rate of annual increase in wage data, including bonuses, decreased from 5.7% in the previous period, to 4.5% (YoY) now. However, this decrease is mainly attributed to making a one-time payment to the employees of the health sector. Unemployment has decreased in recent months from a level of 4.4 % to the level of 4.2%.
“Overall, it seems that the data of the last two days are sending conflicting messages about the state of the British economy. On the one hand, the actual increase in inflation is lower than what the markets expected and contributed to the drop in service prices, and the wage growth figures signal the beginning of the fading of the shocks in the British economy. On the other hand, the pressure on the labor market is expected to continue to affect Bank of England interest rate cut decisions in the future.
“In conclusion, it can be said that the indicators now do not point to a decision to lower interest rates in September, when the next decision to lower interest rates is expected to be made on 07.11. As of today, the markets are already pricing in two interest rate cuts of 25 points for the months of November and December.”
12:35
The demand for the defense company’s products Elbit Systems It is reflected in the continued growth in the order backlog and the company’s revenues, alongside an increase in profit. The company ended the second quarter of the year with an order backlog of $21.1 billion, a 31% increase compared to the corresponding quarter. Revenues grew by 11.8% and amounted to approximately $1.6 billion in the second quarter, while since the beginning of the year revenues grew at a similar rate and reached approximately $3.2 billion.
11:29
The rate hikes in Europe continue. The Dax rises by 0.4%, the British FTSE trades in a similar trend and the French CAC rises by 0.6%.
US futures are currently trading in a mixed trend.
In the American debt market, government bond yields are trading slightly higher, after falling sharply last night. The 10-year yield currently stands at 3.85% and the two-year yield is trading around 3.95%.
10:43
The trading day in Europe opened with a positive trend: the DAX rose by 0.4%, the French CAC added to its value by about 0.6% and the British Potsey rose by about 0.5%.
09:23
This morning in Asia, the leading indices are trading with slight losses. The Nikkei rose by 0.5%, the Hang Seng shed 0.4% of its value, the Shanghai Stock Exchange traded at a similar rate and the Kospi index rose by 0.6%.
Futures in the US are trading stable this morning.
Last night on Wall Street, the main indexes closed with sharp price increases following the publication of the producer price index last night (Tuesday) which indicated a further economic slowdown. The manufacturing price index in the US, which rose in July by less than expected, also contributed to the positive centimeter on Wall Street last night in light of the increased estimates that interest rates in the US will drop in September. Nasdaq rose 2.4%, S&P 500 1.7% and Dow Jones added 1%.
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After posting a strong quarterly report last Monday, Monday.com The Israeli company concentrated interest last night after Oppenheimer raised the target price on the stock: “We are encouraged by the unceasing strength of the company’s results, which continues to present exceptional growth and profitability rates in light of the significant market potential for its solutions. We maintain our Outperform recommendation on the stock while raising the target price from $250 to -275, based on a multiplier of 11 for the 2025 revenue forecast, still a discount for pricing growth companies in the cloud software sector. The company is on the “Israelist” list of recommendations of the Oppenheimer Israel research department, and is the strongest growth recommendation among Israeli technology companies.
● Monday’s stock soared after strong reports: “The ambition – to become a 10 times bigger company”
stock Nvidia jumped by more than 6% last night, the reason is probably the same estimates that the delay in the launch of its new chip, the Blackwell, will not affect the company as initially predicted.
The fear that billions of dollars in sales of the new chip will be delayed sent the stock into sharp declines last week, but analysts at UBS who investigated the matter concluded that the shipment of the chips will be delayed by at most six weeks, until January 2025, “Demand is still strong and will be supplied by other chips during the delay period”. UBS noted, “its global corporate clients and research labs will continue to invest a lot of money in artificial intelligence.”
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Bank of America is also not excited by the delay – the company’s analyst Vivek Aryeh wrote to investors a few days ago that “the new chip, the Blackwell, was not expected to significantly affect the company’s results at least not before the first quarter of next year, and Nvidia has many options including increasing the life cycle of The current generation of AI chips.”
Intel Centers interest this morning after it was reported that it sold approximately 1.18 million of its shares in the British chip company Arm for $147 million. ARM’s stock price broke an all-time high in mid-July so this is a good deal for Intel, after the stock price has fallen by a third since then. At the same time, Intel is expected to exercise shares of Mobileye and Altara.
Intel’s total cash at the end of June stood at $11.3 billion, and its liabilities totaled approximately $32 billion. The sale of Arm comes amid a turbulent financial period for Intel. CEO Pat Gelsinger recently explained that Intel is undergoing “Intel’s most fundamental restructuring since the move to the memory microprocessor four decades ago.”
At the beginning of August, Intel announced a plan to reduce costs of 10 billion dollars, and cut 15,000 employees. At the same time, Intel reported weaker than expected quarterly results. After the results, the biggest drop in the share price in 50 years was recorded, of 26%.
Following on from the macro data published last night that provided a tailwind for an imminent interest rate reduction in the US, in the US debt market government bond yields fell sharply last night (Tuesday). The 10-year yield this morning (Wed) is around 3.85% and the two-year yield is 3.93%.
In the commodities market, oil prices rose slightly this morning (Wed) amid fears of an Iranian attack on Israel. The price of a barrel of WTI this morning traded around 78.8 dollars and the price of a barrel of Brent stands at 81 dollars. Gil Bafman, the chief economist of Bank Leumi, estimates that “the risk in the Middle East has increased due to the intensification of geopolitical conflicts. A broad escalation could also lead to fear of blocking the Straits of Hormuz – through which about 20% of the total global oil production passes. Blocking the producers may lead to a shortage Global in oil and its products”.
In the macro sector, inflation in the UK was a positive surprise when it rose by 3.3% at an annual rate (expected: 3.4%).
Today at 15:30 Israel time, inflation data in the US is expected to be published. Investors are eagerly awaiting the publication of the data in view of estimates that the Fed is expected to lower interest rates in September, among other things in light of the moderation of inflation.
Alex Zebzinski, Chief Economist at Meitav, says that “according to the inflation forecast of the Fed branch in Cleveland, which is based on the collection of current prices in the economy, general inflation is expected to decrease in the coming months, but core inflation is expected to increase after the July and August indices, from 3.3% to -3.4%”. This is mainly inflation of products that do not take seasonality into account. According to Zebzinski, the increase is mainly technical, due to the release of low data from the index calculation, but still core inflation will rise well above the Fed’s target. On the other hand, the data on the employment market are expected to continue to show a sharp moderation and slowdown in the economic economy, which should stimulate interest rate cuts to encourage the economy.