Pax Americana, the planetary order born after the end of the Second World War which allowed the West to prosper in peace, based on demands for democracy and social justice, is rapidly drawing to a close. The contradictions and obvious inequalities created in eighty years, combined with an economic crisis and perhaps the inevitable exhaustion of the capitalist system, destined to enter into crisis as Marx said if there are no more peoples to exploit (because today the so-called Third World, or the South of the world, has changed address and economic-exploitative interlocutors), is causing a situation of uncertainty and internal and external political tensions that takes us back almost a hundred years, to the end of the 1930s. This is the context on which the journalist and writer Alan Friedman moves to outline what is and could be the global geopolitical scenario of the coming years in his latest book, ‘The end of the American empire. Guide to the New World Disorder’ (Ed. La nave di Teseo, pages. 305; price: 22 euros).
“What is emerging is a New World Disorder. In this new world the American empire is in decline: not formally finished, but in decline – writes Freidman – in this new world Europe is going through an existential crisis due to the war of Vladimir Putin, while China and Russia arm in arm try to put an end to American peace. In this new world, mid-level powers emerge that want to play a leading role in the southern hemisphere. In this new world, China and India compete for the leadership of what is now called the Global South, nations such as South Africa and Brazil often side with Russia and China, creating new transversal alliances, with international political and commercial agreements they tend to exclude the United States and snub Europe, and they have only one thing in common: the rejection of the old world order of Western liberal democracy”, adds the writer.
Obviously, the maximum attention is on Donald Trump, whose possible re-election in less than a week is seen as a danger for world balance and for the definitive end of US political and economic hegemony. Friedman deeply hates Trump. Because he brought populism to power, he has an idea of the presidency close to the Russian dictator whom he deeply admires (and with whom he has economic relations), Vladimir Putin, he wants to control justice, he wants to persecute (he said so) his opponents.
“Donald Trump would like to reduce the pillars of American democracy to rubble. He himself, moreover, has made his intentions explicit – writes Friedman – he has promised to round up and deport millions of immigrants and build new detention centers for them. He has ensured that the state he will ‘monitor’ women’s pregnancies to eliminate abortion and finally he has said clearly that he will use the powers of the president to mount a large-scale ‘punitive’ campaign against his political enemies.”
He then cites an aphorism often attributed to the American writer Sinclair Lewis, who in 1935 published a novel about a populist, nationalist leader who becomes president (“It can’t happen with us”): “When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and will carry the cross.” Trump, writes Friedman, will not only lead the American empire to a very rapid decline to the advantage of China – which in any case according to most analysts will reach or exceed the GDP of the USA by 2040 – but will contribute to further legitimizing dictators – such as Mohammad bin Salman – or (democratically elected) autocrats such as Vladimir Putin, Victor Orban, Tayyip Erdogan, Benjamin Natanyahu or the Indian Narendra Modi favoring what he calls “the New World Disorder”.
“Managing an empire is not really our specialty, it’s something that we Americans have never been too good at – concludes Fiedman – but what awaits us could be much worse than that naive and mismanaged empire that we have known in recent years. eighty years. At least half of America is hibernating in primitive and ignorant isolationism.”
And the US presidential elections on November 5-6 could represent a turning point, in one direction or another. “Never has the choice been so radical between two opposing visions – writes Alan Friedman – one that wants to destroy the position that America has carved out for itself in the world and is ready to benefit the country’s enemies, the other that tries to shore up and restructuring what remains of the Western system based on rules – he adds – the 2024 presidential elections have been structured as a confrontation between voters worried that America could become an illiberal democracy. worse, and of the cynics who sided with the Republicans only because they proposed lower taxes, side by side with the under-cultured followers of the Trumpian sect, of which there are many.”