The veteran, the rookie, and the new star of American tennis. I am Daniil Medvedev winner in 2020 and in his sixth consecutive year at the ATP Finals, the world number 9 Alex De Minaur at his first Masters tournament and Taylor Fritz the opponents of the world number one Jannik Sinner in the Nastase group of the ATP Finals starting on Sunday in Turin. The two groups (in Newcombe are Zverev, Alcaraz, Ruud and Rublev) will be on stage until Friday, followed by the semi-finals and final on Saturday and Sunday. How and to what extent will the Italian be able to worry his three opponents in the preliminary phase and the two big names who, arriving from the other group, will find themselves in the semi-finals?
The Russian Medvedev arrives in Turin with 45 matches won and 19 lost this year but with “zero titles”. His latest success dates back to the 2023 Internazionali d’Italia. This year he was a finalist at the Australian Open and Indian Wells, a semi-finalist at Wimbledon, Miami, Dubai and Beijing and then played in the quarter-finals at the US Open and the round of 16. at Roland Garros. The one with Sinner will be his fifteenth match, which will result in a tie made up of seven victories each (but in the last matches the blue player leads seven to one with the only defeat suffered in the quarter-finals at Wimbledon). This season the Russian seems to have become aware of that his game plan as an unbreakable returner was defused by Sinner himself: his problem is not only technical but also psychological.
The blue will have to pay attention to Fritz, annihilated in the US Open final in front of his audience, but never so high in the ranking (he is number 5) and with even higher morale, strong in the knowledge that he is no longer incomplete , but a 27-year-old who leads the nouvelle vague of American tennis players. He returns to the Finals for the second time in his career, after the 2022 semi-final, this time with two titles, the quarter-finals at Wimbledon and the Australian Open and, indeed, the final at the US Open.
The Australian Alex De Minaur, whose debut in the Finals was facilitated by Djokovic’s withdrawal, shouldn’t worry Sinner too much. Sinner always beat him in the seven matches they faced. The Australian arrives in Turin as number 9 in the world, with two titles forfeited this year (a 500 and a 250), quarter-finals at Roland Garros, the US Open and Wimbledon. However, it was precisely at Wimbledon that he had to withdraw due to a hip problem (even Sinner knows something about it) which penalized him a lot, also putting his participation in Turin in doubt.
The Newcombe group, which will produce the other two semi-finalists, already has an advantage from the start, that of including number 3 Carlos Alcaraz, with a draw that paved the way to the semi-finals for Jannik Sinner, leader of the Nastase group, avoiding a comparison with the Spaniard already in the preliminary phase. Thanks to luck, Alcaraz ended up together with Casper Ruud and Andrej Rublev in the group where no. 2 Alexander Zverev is seeded. But how and with what expectations did the four arrive at the “Masters tournament”? Zverev, who has already won the ATP Finals in 2018, is in great shape, with a great year (two titles, Rome and Paris Bercy, 66 matches won and 20 lost so far) and a season finale in which he rose to number 2 of the world ranking, undermining, in fact, Alcaraz.
Paris Bercy’s performance was yet another confirmation of his growth, both from a technical point of view (he improved his serve even further) and psychologically, with a tendency to have fun even near the court (see “good evening, my name is Jannik ” during the awards ceremony at the Italian Internationals orphaned by Sinner and the laughter with Alcaraz with “Carlos always loses in important matches” in the press conference of the Finals).
The one against Alcaraz (in direct comparisons there are 5 draws) will be the match not to be missed. The Spaniard who arrives in Turin is obviously a giant, but with one position less and with some creaks in his performance in a year that saw him winner of two Slams (Paris and Wimbledon), as well as protagonist with Sinner of the new tennis rivalry orphan of three Fab Four and with Djokovic who marked his visit to Turin. The end of the season saw him sensationally exit in the round of 32 in Paris Bercy at the hands of Humbert while at the US Open he lost very early to the Dutch van de Zandschulp. And for the first time, an episode not to be underestimated, this year the Spaniard who always smiles on the court happened to break a racket (in Cincinnati, against Monfils).
The supporting players in the group, at least on paper, are Casper Ruud and Andrej Rublev to whom Djokovic’s withdrawal has opened the doors of Turin. The Norwegian Ruud, who reached the semi-finals in 2021 and the final in 2022 in the Final, arrives in Piedmont with a year that started well (final in Monte Carlo, semi-final at Roland Garros, victory in Geneva and Acapulco, which was however followed by a very dark period Just as Andrej Rublev cannot find himself, 44 victories and 22 defeats so far: winner of Hong Kong and Madrid, finalist in Canada, he is now down to number 9 and above all he is increasingly a victim of his not only strategic self-harm: in Paris Bercy came out quickly against Francisco Cerundolo, bludgeoning himself on the knee, complete with bloodshed on the pitch and a cut that went around the web He runs the serious risk of repeating the performance of a year ago, when he left the group empty-handed, without winning a single set against Medvedev, Alcaraz and Zverev.