Music and audiovisual creators could lose, respectively, 24% and 21% of their income between now and 2028 due to the substitute impact of generative artificial intelligence (AI) on works created by humans, according to a study of the International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers (CISAC).
Precisely, the study, to which Europa Press has had access, shows that these data are equivalent to an accumulated loss of 22,000 million euros in a period of five years, 10,000 million euros in the music sector and 12,000 million euros in the sector. audiovisual, despite the fact that these creators provide the creative material that feeds the market for content produced by generative AI.
Meanwhile, the market for musical and audiovisual content generated by AI will grow exponentially in the next five years, going from a current value of 3 billion euros to 64 billion euros in 2028.
Thus, as a result of this market growth, the future income of generative AI providers will amount to annual income of 4,000 million euros in the music sector – compared to 100 million euros in 2023 – and 5,000 million of euros in the audiovisual sector – compared to 200 million euros in 2023 -.
These revenues are derived directly from the unauthorized reproduction of creators’ works and represent a transfer of economic value from creators to AI companies.
AI MUSIC WILL REPRESENT 20% OF REVENUES ON PLATFORMS
In the music sector, the streaming and music library markets will be strongly impacted by AI, reaching 20% of the revenue of traditional music streaming platforms and around 60% of the revenue of traditional music streaming platforms. % of music library revenue by 2028.
For their part, translators and adapters of dubbing and subtitles will be the most affected in the audiovisual industry, with a possible loss of 56% of their income, while scriptwriters and directors could see their income reduced between 15% and 20%. %.
The study, carried out by PMP Strategy, concludes that if the regulatory framework is not modified, creators will suffer losses, both in income from the unauthorized use of their works, and the replacement of their traditional sources of income due to the substitution effect of products generated by AI, which will compete with works created by humans.
In that sense, the general director of the General Society of Authors and Editors (SGAE), Cristina Perpiñá-Robert, has assured in a statement that this study confirms the “complicated situation” of the cultural world.
“Throughout history, copyright has adapted to different technological advances. Generative AI produces large-scale works that copy and replace the works of the original creators. This is causing enormous economic, cultural and social”, he added.
In turn, the president of CISAC, Björn Ulvaeus, has welcomed the study as a “guide” to policy makers in legislative debates around the world, without leaving aside the “potential” of AI to offer opportunities to creators. “of all kinds.”
“But we must accept that, if not well regulated, generative AI also has the power to severely harm human creators, their careers, and their livelihoods. Which of these two scenarios will prevail? This will largely be determined by the decisions made by political leaders in the legislative reviews that are being carried out around the world at the moment,” he added.
The historical figures and forecasts in the report have been achieved based on market data, relevant benchmarks and extensive interviews with industry experts such as collective management organizations (CMOs), creators, technology sector players, producers, publishers, suppliers of digital services (PSD), institutional actors representative of these industries in question and public institutions.