China is having difficulty solving the problem of birth promotion

The 32-year-old woman admitted that she did not pay much attention to birth promotion or child care policies in China. She believes that she will only have children when she feels ready – a common sentiment shared by many couples. They delay marriage or parenthood, or even give up the desire to have children because of financial instability or gender inequality.

This attitude conflicts with China’s efforts to boost marriage and birth rates. According to the Ministry of the Interior, the number of new births and marriages are at record lows. Births dropped by nearly half, from about 17 million in 2014 to 9 million in 2023. The marriage rate, which is closely related to the birth rate, is also not positive. Just 4.75 million couples got married in the past nine months, down 17% over the same period in 2023.

Mr. He Yafu, a demographer in Guangdong, estimates that the total number of marriages this year could fall by 6 to 7 million, significantly lower than in previous years. China’s population, once the world’s largest, has declined for two consecutive years as marriage and birth rates plummet. This puts great pressure on the younger generation to support the aging population.

Authorities are therefore trying to increase marriage and birth rates through many measures, from allowing marriage registration in picturesque locations to issuing financial support policies such as maternity insurance. , expanded child care and reduced taxes. Even in some places, facility officials call women to ask about their pregnancy plans.

The Chinese government also conducted a nationwide survey of 30,000 people across 150 counties and 1,500 different communities to learn about people’s views on childbirth and related “fears”. As a result, many people said they have other priorities.

In China, the average cost of raising a child to age 18 was estimated at 485,000 yuan ($67,000) in 2019, nearly seven times the country’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) , much higher than elsewhere, including the US and Japan, according to the Beijing-based YuWa Population Research Institute.

Sharing about the challenges between raising her newborn daughter and working at a bank in Yinchuan, Xiao Zhang, 27, said she “doesn’t think any policy can really solve these problems”.

“They are far away without much practical impact on the average person. We have to consider housing, school districts, nearby amenities and mainly the financial burden of raising children. We don’t manage on our own.” I can manage,” she said.

As a two-income family, she and her husband could not balance child care without support from older family members. My grandparents, who originally lived in the countryside, now need to learn how to adapt to life in the city. This is extremely difficult for her family. Therefore, she prioritizes “making money first and then taking care of her children”.

“This is reality. Unless you work for the government, with a regular schedule from 9am to 5pm, childcare is stable. Most of us have to work overtime and only have one day off a week,” she said, adding that companies have their own biases when hiring women. Therefore, changing jobs quickly is impractical.

China is not alone in its demographic war. Experts said that neighboring countries Korea and Japan are also in the middle of a similar problem. Government measures to promote fertility such as longer maternity leave and cash grants have not yielded results.

Sociologist Sandy To believes that reproductive policies in China need to give women “a sense of confidence that having children will not significantly affect their lifestyle and career”.

“Times have changed. You can no longer force young people. You have to convince them that getting married and starting a family will bring them happiness. They need to have confidence in themselves. enough resources to have children. The problem is that women do not have enough economic resources and support from modern society to do this,” Dr. To said.

Stuart Gietel-Basten, a professor of social sciences and public policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said fertility policies should serve as “real tools to support family happiness.” , rather than just “a means to increase the national birth rate”.

The falling birth rate is also “a downstream reflection of other problems and challenges in society,” he said. According to him, financial incentives alone will not solve systemic problems, such as high living costs, competition in education and rigid work culture.

Experts warn that birth promotion policies could cause China to face challenges similar to those in South Korea and Japan.

“What the Chinese government intends to do, the Japanese government has already done. China’s newly introduced policies are mainly economic, trying to reduce the cost of child care for families.” , said Dr. Yi Fuxian, a demographic expert at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Citing South Korea’s difficulties, Professor Gietel-Basten warned against applying “natalism” to urge young people to have children. These are policies proposed with the sole goal of increasing the birth rate.

In an official announcement on October 19, China’s State Council announced a series of plans to promote birth, such as new maternity insurance, expanding child care services and tax reductions for families.

Local officials have even stronger measures. In Luliang city in Shanxi province, newlyweds are awarded 1,500 yuan if the bride is under 35 years old.