Low fertility, high gender gap at birth and rapid aging are three challenges that Vietnam’s population is facing.
Deputy Minister of Health Tran Van Thuan said as above Launching ceremony of National Action Month on Population 2024, December 10, adding that population work is facing many difficulties and challenges, directly impacting life, society and the sustainable development of Vietnam at present and in the future.
“Solid maintenance of the replacement fertility rate nationwide is not truly sustainable, a trend has appeared fertility rate is low“, Deputy Minister Thuan said. In 2023, the estimated birth rate is 1.96 children/woman, the lowest in history and is expected to continue to decrease in the following years. The ideal replacement fertility rate is 2, 1 child/woman.
Vietnam’s average population in 2023 is estimated at 100.3 million people, an increase of nearly 835,000 people compared to the previous year. In the 10 years 2013-2023, Vietnam’s population increases by about one million people on average each year.
Vietnam is currently the third most populous country in Southeast Asia, after Indonesia and the Philippines, and ranks 15th in the world. However, the population growth rate has continuously decreased from 1.7% in 1999 to 1.14% in 2019 and 0.85% in 2023. The General Statistics Office predicts that, in the average fertility scenario, , by 2069, Vietnam’s average population growth rate will reach 0. In the low fertility scenario, in the next 35 years, Vietnam will face a population growth rate of minus.
Speed increase sex ratio birth has been controlled, but is still high and shows no signs of decreasing. In 2023, this ratio is 112 boys/100 girls, a slight decrease compared to 2022, while the natural ratio is about 105/100.
Gender imbalance has a negative impact on the future population structure and excess males. In 2020, the General Statistics Office forecasts that Vietnam will have an excess of 1.5 million men aged 15 to 49 in 2034 and an excess of 1.8 million in 2059 if the level of sex imbalance at birth remains high. The lack of women puts pressure on girls to marry early, easily leading to dropping out of school to get married and increasing trafficking in women.
Finally, speed Rapid population aging and will soon pass through the golden population period. In 2011, Vietnam officially entered the phase of population aging and is one of the countries with the fastest aging rate in the world. It is forecast that by 2038, meaning that in just 15 years, our country will enter an aging population period, with one in five people over 60 years old.
Deputy Minister Tran Van Thuan spoke at the ceremony. Image: Thuy Lien
Population aging poses serious challenges in economic growth, social security, labor, and infrastructure design, especially in the field of health care. Elderly people suffer from many non-communicable diseases that require lifelong treatment such as blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and dementia. Population aging also reduces the structure of the working-age population, the occupational structure will change, and the economic burden on young workers will be higher.
In addition, the Vietnamese population also faces many problems with child marriage, inbreeding, pregnancy and childbirth among minors. Their stature, physical strength and quality of life need to be greatly improved. more… Meanwhile, the organization of the population work apparatus is not stable, there is a lack of unity among provinces and cities, and the investment resources for population work are not commensurate with the requirements and assigned tasks. deliver.
Mr. Matt Jackson, UNFPA Chief Representative in Vietnam, said that besides challenges, Vietnam’s population sector has also achieved many achievements. People now live longer, exceeding the target of reducing the maternal mortality rate. The rate of using modern contraceptives among women aged 15-49 increased, reaching more than 60%, contributing to improving reproductive health for everyone.
The goal of the population sector is to shift the policy focus from family planning to population and development. Therefore, the Ministry of Health is developing a Population Law project and documents guiding its implementation, expected to be submitted to the Government and National Assembly in the near future.