Why does the world’s most populous country still encourage births?

According to United Nations estimates, last year, India surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country. With a population of nearly 1.45 billion, many people believe that India should not be encouraged to have more children. But recently, discussions about this issue have resurfaced.

Leaders of two southern states, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, have just spoken out in favor of having more children. Andhra Pradesh is considering measures to incentivize people, citing low birth rate and aging population. This state has also abolished the “two-child policy”. Neighboring Tamil Nadu also has similar, even stronger, moves.

India’s birth rate has dropped dramatically, from 5.7 children per woman in 1950 to 2 children per woman today. In 17 of 29 states, the number fell below the replacement level of two children per woman. (Replacement level is the level at which the number of births is sufficient to maintain a stable population).

Five southern Indian states are leading the demographic transition, reaching replacement fertility levels much earlier than other states. Kerala hit this mark in 1988, Tamil Nadu in 1993, the remaining states in the mid-2000s. Today, the total fertility rate of the five southern states is below 1.6, with Karnataka at 1.6 and Tamil Nadu is 1.4. In other words, birth rates in the states are equal to or lower than many European countries.

Worry about not being rich and getting old

First, these states fear that India’s changing demographics will affect electors, congressional seat allocation, and federal revenue.

“They fear being disadvantaged by population control policies, even though they are economically effective and contribute significantly to federal revenues,” said Srinivas Goli, professor of demography at the International Institute of Population Sciences. , said.

Southern states are also facing another major concern. When India redistricts its constituencies in 2026, the economically prosperous southern region will have fewer seats in parliament. Because federal revenues are allocated based on population, many fear this will impact their finances and limit their policy-making autonomy.

According to demographers, besides election-related issues, the main challenge of the falling birth rate is population aging. This is also the reason why India and other populous countries promote birth. While countries like France and Sweden took 120 and 80 years respectively to double their aging population from 7% to 14%, India is expected to reach this milestone in just 28 years, Mr. Goli said.

The rapid aging process is linked to India’s exceptional success in reducing birth rates in the past period. In most countries, improved living standards, education and urbanization naturally reduce birth rates, as a greater proportion of children survive birth.

However, in India, the situation is opposite. The birth rate is falling rapidly, although economic and social progress is still modest. The reason is active family welfare programs, which encourage small family models through various goals. According to some experts, this situation has unpredictable consequences.

Taking Andhra Pradesh as an example, Professor Goli explained, the state’s birth rate is 1.5 – about the same as Sweden. But per capita income is 28 times lower. With public debt and limited resources, he asks “Can such states be able to support high pensions or social security for a rapidly aging population, without a young population to fill in?” empty space?”

Currently, more than 40% of India’s elderly (over 60 years old) are in the poorest 20% of the population in terms of wealth distribution, according to the latest India Aging Report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). .

“In other words, India is getting old before it gets rich,” said Mr. Goli.

What is the solution for a country of billions of people?

People have fewer children, causing the dependency ratio in old age to increase. There is a shortage of caregivers. Demographers warn that health care systems, community centers and nursing homes are inadequate to respond to this change.

Urbanization, migration and labor market changes are eroding the traditional family structure that is India’s strength. This leaves many elderly people behind. Migration from more populous states to less populous states may reduce the working age gap, but it also raises concerns about anti-migration.

“Strong investment in prevention, palliative care and social infrastructure to care for the elderly is urgently needed,” Mr Goli said.

Earlier this month, the head of the Hindu nationalist organization Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (National Volunteer Organisation), the ideological mainstay of Modi’s BJP party, called on couples to have at least three children to secure India’s future.

“According to population science, when the birth rate falls below 2.1, society will destroy itself. No one will destroy it,” Mohan Bhagwat said at a recent meeting.

While Mr. Bhagwat’s concerns are well-founded, some experts say they are not entirely accurate. Tim Dyson, a demographer at the London School of Economics, said that after a decade or two, “super low birth rates will lead to population decline”. The figure of 1.8 children per woman is manageable. However, when it reaches the 1.6 mark or lower, officials will not be able to handle the population structure.

“The number of people entering reproductive age and prime working age will be smaller. This is a social, political and economic disaster. This is a demographic process and extremely difficult to reverse.” , Mr. Dyson said.

This has happened in several developed economies. In May, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared the record low birth rate a “national emergency” and announced plans to establish a specialized government committee. Greece’s birth rate has plummeted to 1.3, half its level in 1950, prompting Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to warn of an “existential” population threat.

Still, Indian demographers say it’s useless to urge people to have more children. According to Mr. Dyson, the country is experiencing clear social changes, for example the gender gap has decreased significantly, women’s lives are increasingly similar to men’s. Therefore, the demographic trend is difficult to reverse.

For states grappling with a declining workforce like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the key question is: Who will fill the population gap? Developed countries unable to reverse falling birth rates are focusing on healthy, active aging policies. They extend the retirement age by 5 to 7 years and increase work productivity in the elderly.

If India is going to do the same, demographers say, it needs to prioritize policies that increase healthy life expectancy through good medical screening and social security for workers, ensuring they age well. dynamic way. In many countries, the elderly are now considered a potential “silver generation”. Mr. Goli believes that, until 2047, India has many opportunities to boost the economy, create jobs for the population and allocate resources to the elderly.