Japanese experts predict that the number of children under 14 years old will decrease to one person by 2720 if the current low birth rate is maintained.
The prediction was made by Professor Hiroshi Yoshida, an expert on demographic trends at the Center for Economic and Social Research of the Aging, Tohoku University, on January 7. He warned that if Japan’s birth rate continues to decline, the country will have only one child under 14 years old by January 5, 2720.
To calculate that number, he uses a form of demographic “clock” that displays real-time data on the number of children in Japan. This clock compares the number of children between consecutive years, based on official data from the Department of Statistics. Based on the number of children decreasing over the years, the clock counts down to when the number of children is reduced to one.
According to the latest calculations, this will happen around the year 2720, which is 695 years from now. Mr. Yoshida has published estimates every year since April 2012. The purpose of Yoshida’s “baby timer” is to raise awareness of rapid population decline and the broader impacts of falling birth rates.
Japan’s birth rate has fallen to a record low of 1.20 in 2023, with Tokyo’s falling below one, while the ideal number is 2.1. This decline is due to fewer people getting married.
The number of children born in Japan in the first half of 2024 fell to the lowest level since 1969. From January to June last year, the country recorded 350,074 births, down 5.7% over the same period 2023, according to a preliminary report from the Ministry of Health.
Children at a traditional festival in Wajima city, Ishikawa Prefecture, January 2. Image: Jiji
The Japanese government is trying to take measures to solve the problem of falling birth rates, calling this an alarming situation. Officials expanded child care facilities, subsidized housing, and even launched a government-run dating app to encourage marriage and childbearing. Japan also strives to help households balance work and life and take care of children. However, experts predict the country’s population decline will last for decades, due to the current demographic structure.