The fertility of Vietnam is in the lowest group in Southeast Asia

Information was stated by the Statistics Agency on February 21. Compared to the regional average (2.0 heads/woman), Vietnam is only higher than Brunei (1.8 heads/woman), Malaysia (1.6 children/woman), Thailand and Singapore (1 , 0 children/woman).

From 1999 to 2022, Vietnam’s fertility remains stable around the replacement fertility level (2.1). However, in the last two years, the fertility level fell rapidly, from 1.96 children/woman in 2023 to 1.91 heads/woman in 2024 – the lowest level in history. This is also the third consecutive year of Vietnam’s fertility decreases below the replacement, according to the Ministry of Health.

Although 2024 is the year of Dragon, according to the concept of the East is a favorable year to give birth, this result shows that the concept of childbirth has changed, no longer depending on the “beautiful year” factor. At the same time, the current encouragement policies are not effective enough to prevent the birth momentum, Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong said.

The fertility level in Vietnam has a clear difference between socio -economic regions. The Southeast and the Mekong Delta are the two areas with the lowest fertility, reaching 1.48 and 1.62 heads, respectively. Meanwhile, the Northern Midlands and Mountains (2.34 children/women) and the Central Highlands (2.24 heads/women) are areas with higher fertility than replacement.

Ho Chi Minh City continues to be the locality with the lowest fertility in the country, only 1.39 children/woman, while Ha Giang leads with the highest fertility, 2.69 children/woman. The number of provinces with a fertility level also increased rapidly, from 22 provinces in 2019 to 32 provinces in 2024, concentrated mainly in the Southeast and the Mekong Delta.

In urban areas, the birth rate in 2024 is only 1.67 heads/woman, significantly lower than the rural area (2,08 heads/woman). Notably, the fertility level in the countryside – which is always higher than the replacement level – has started to drop sharply in the past two years, below the replacement.

According to experts, low fertility in Vietnam is influenced by many factors such as work pressure, financial difficulties, prioritizing career development and changing social awareness. In rural areas, women often give birth to more children due to early marriage, affected by customs, especially in remote areas. However, the trend of reducing birth in rural areas is increasingly pronounced.

The low fertility level deeply affects the population structure, reduces the population group of working age, accelerates the aging process and negatively affects the population size. Experts warn that if there is no timely measure, Vietnam may face the risk of “population collapse”, anesthesia of the economy.

Many countries around the world have implemented strong policies to prevent the birth momentum. South Korea – the country with the lowest birth rate in the world – has tripled the budget for birth promotion programs, and great financial benefits for families with children. In Hungary, women born with 4 or more children are exempted from personal income tax for life.

Facing this situation, experts propose Vietnamese to develop practical support policies such as reducing children’s raising costs, supporting housing and changing social awareness.

“The birth of children should be considered the responsibility, obligations and interests of each individual, contributing to ensuring the sustainable development of the country,” said Mai Xuan Phuong, a population expert.