North Korea faces the paradox ‘you’re old before you get rich’

Recent data from the United Nations and South Korea shows that North Korean women currently have an average of 1.6 – 1.8 children, much lower than the necessary replacement fertility rate of 2.1. Data from the National Statistics Portal also records that North Korea’s birth rate in 2025 is estimated to reach 1.59 children per woman, higher than South Korea’s (0.65), but still lower than the 2.1 level needed to maintain the population. This country currently has about 26.5 million people. This reality pushes North Korea into the group of East Asian societies with record low birth rates and creates a “demographic paradox” in which the country ages before it can prosper.

Theo The Korea TimesNorth Korea is joining the low-birth-rate social group but lacks the developed economic base that often accompanies this transition. Experts warn that the combination of poverty and shrinking family sizes will leave Pyongyang facing a serious demographic crisis within just one generation.

Typically, large families (birth rate above 3) are common in countries with income levels similar to North Korea. However, the country’s population indicators resemble those of developed economies, where women tend to marry later to pursue career and education.

President Kim Jong-un’s administration is trying to reverse the situation through many tough measures. Last month, during the Mother’s Day event, Pyongyang strongly propagated the message that childbirth is a “vocation and duty”. At the same time, authorities have strengthened discipline, increased fines for doctors who perform abortions, and cracked down on contraceptive smuggling rings – measures that have been stepped up since the early 2010s.

“North Korea is changing similarly to South Korea,” said Mr. Choi Jung-hoon, a former North Korean doctor now living in Seoul. He said the traditional family structure is cracking due to the trend of young people marrying late and flexible lifestyles.

According to Mr. Choi, the form of living together without marriage is gradually becoming popular among young people who value freedom and want to avoid government intervention in their private lives. The concept of “wise boys marry, older girls marry” is no longer an absolute pressure.

This former doctor also revealed that abortion takes place regularly despite being illegal, and has even become the main source of income for many medical staff. Thanks to the legacy of its socialist medical system, North Korea has a much denser network of hospitals and doctors than other countries at the same economic level. This, combined with high demand for birth control, explains the sharp decline in birth rates despite low economic conditions.

Currently, the intrauterine device (IUD) is the most popular planning method in North Korea. In addition, condoms and birth control pills from China have also entered the country in large quantities in recent years.

Professor Kang Chae-yeon from the Institute of Unified Education analyzed that, besides goods, the flow of information from the outside world has had a strong impact on social awareness. Approaching new ideas helps North Korean women realize their right to self-determination over their lives, instead of accepting the role of giving birth as a mandatory obligation.

Observers say the North Korean government has identified the decline in birth rate as a national crisis. However, the ability to reverse this trend is still a big question mark. An analyst commented: “History has proven that once a society falls into a low fertility threshold, it is very difficult to turn the situation around, despite policy intervention efforts.”