The researchers focused on two viruses from the enterovirus family and analyzed morbidity data in China in foot and mouth disease between 2009-2013, and morbidity trends in Japan between 1982-2015. They also collected data on the incidence of polio in the US, before the era of vaccines. Later, the researchers compared the trends with the climate changes that occurred in those years. In addition, they used a weather forecast model to predict the frequency of future outbreaks and climate changes that are expected to occur at the end of the century The 21st.
The study found that the spread of viruses increases in line with the increase in temperature, and that climate change can increase the spread of enteroviruses by up to 40 percent. It was also found that demographic factors, for example the stay of children in kindergartens and schools, i.e. in closed places and for an extended period of time, are also significant regarding the spread of diseases. The researchers note that the effects vary depending on the location and its climate.
“In general, it should be understood that there is a connection between climate conditions, weather and humidity and infectious diseases in many cases,” explains Prof. Cyril Cohen, head of the immunotherapy laboratory at Bar-Ilan University, in response to the research findings. “Actually, we are talking about creatures, living bacteria, or viruses that are based on living creatures, and their behavior depends on various factors, including environmental conditions. We know, for example, that the flu and RSV viruses are related to the weather and are therefore also more common in the winter. At the same time, in recent years we understand There are viruses that are more related to warm or hot weather, such as dengue virus, as well as West Nile fever, which is widespread in Israel today.”
The professor emphasizes that the findings should be taken with a limited guarantee. “Research that is based on prediction and forecasts is not the actual situation at present, so further follow-up of the findings is needed.” He also adds that the results obtained in the study are not uniform. “The researchers focused mainly on Asia, where a significant portion of viral diseases develop, and from there they also spread to other regions and countries. According to the study, there will be areas more prone to disasters, and those less so.”
However, says the professor, it is important to research and previous studies on the subject that emphasize the need for advance preparation to deal with these outbreaks. “The research emphasizes that it is impossible to look at things separately, you have to look at the broader picture, and take this into account when building a comprehensive plan to protect public health, whether in monitoring and tracking these viruses, or in developing vaccines to reduce the scope of morbidity in the future.”
The professor points out that the rise in temperatures is only one symptom of the global climate crisis. “In recent years, we have seen that climate change also leads to an increase in humidity, to a longer than usual winter season in some places, or to a rainier winter, and these changes can also affect public health. A possible example of this is the high number of cases of West Nile fever this year. One Explanations are that the unusual trend in the number of cases was caused both by an increase in temperatures and by the increased rainfall last winter and the earlier appearance of mosquitoes.” He adds that more research is needed, and that “it is possible that the effect of hot weather on various viruses will also be reflected in trends of decreasing morbidity in other viruses.”
“In 2024 we will break new records in the increase in temperatures”
Prof. Colin Price, head of the Climate Initiative at Tel Aviv University, explains that “We have been recognizing the global increase in temperatures for decades, although the situation now is the most severe. In 2023 we broke all the records in terms of the heat measured on Earth, and most likely in 2024 we will break New records”. According to him, climate change is caused by an increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, partly by the extensive use of oil, coal and natural gas, in the field of transportation and agriculture. “Until now, an increase in temperatures on Earth has been observed by an average of 1.2 degrees Celsius. Apparently this does not sound like much, but let’s take for example a fever in children, so maybe one or two degrees are not very significant, but 3 or 4 degrees already completely changes the picture. And the situation is similar regarding the Earth, because if we don’t do something, we will reach a situation where in 2100 we will see an increase of 4 degrees, which is serious. We must also remember that we are talking about an average increase, meaning that there are also extreme situations around the average in question, and areas where a very high increase is measured Right now.”
According to the professor, climate change leads to various symptoms, among other things, heat waves, rising sea levels and floods, extreme winds, as well as an effect on various viruses. “The climate crisis is also a health crisis. Other studies conducted before also dealt with the connection between climate change and disease outbreaks, and the fact that climate change actually creates better conditions for creatures and viruses to spread even beyond tropical regions, similar to the dengue and Zika viruses. According to the predictions of the current study, This will manifest itself even more directly in our health. To solve this, we need a more extensive use of renewable energy in the fields of transportation and agriculture. In the end, it comes down to the cooperation between the countries of the world. In Israel, for example, there is heavy regulation in solar panels, and instead of the state encouraging it, it supports the fuel and oil companies. In Australia, on the other hand, the citizens receive the solar panels and pay a certain amount for them every month.” However, Prof. Price points out that there is also meaning in the simple everyday actions that every person does. “With simple steps, we can reduce our carbon footprint on the planet: changing home lamps to LED lamps, making sure to turn off the light, using energy-saving devices, drying clothes without using a dryer, traveling by public transport or by bicycle, as well as reducing the consumption of beef, thus reducing The most common greenhouse gas emitted is methane.”