The populations of East Asia and Europe have been shrinking in recent years due to falling fertility, migration and aging populations.
The global population passed 8 billion in November 2022, but the rate of growth is slowing. This decline is not uniform around the world. While some countries have seen significant population growth, many have seen their populations age and begin to decline.
According to data from World Factbook According to a report by the US government and published by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in mid-August, 40 countries will see their populations shrink by about 1% per year. The decline is largely due to persistently low (in some cases extremely low) birth rates, especially in Europe and East Asia.
The countries with the fastest population declines are the United States, Puerto Rico, Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia. According to the map, the US population is growing at a moderate rate of about 0.67% per year. Russia is 16th on the list of countries with the fastest population decline. The reasons are the large number of deaths during Covid-19, hundreds of thousands of men leaving the country to avoid being mobilized to fight in Ukraine, and the emigration to Russia reaching its lowest level in 2023.
Meanwhile, Asia’s most prosperous economies, such as South Korea, Japan and China, have also seen a decline in fertility. For the sixth consecutive year, South Korea has the lowest birth rate in the world. In the latest government data, the number fell to a new low, from 0.84 children per couple (2022) to 0.81 children per couple (2023). The rate is expected to fall further, to 0.68.
In Vietnam, the United Nations warns that by 2500, our country’s population will be only 3.6 million people, equal to the current population of Nghe An province, if the birth rate continues to decrease. In the Southeast and Mekong Delta regions, the birth rate continues to decline (about 1.5 children/woman). The birth rate in Ho Chi Minh City is 1.27 children/woman, the lowest in the country.
The above warning from the United Nations is currently the most far-reaching forecast about the future of Vietnam’s population (nearly 500 years). This warning is almost similar to the trend forecast from domestic experts. Over the past 60 years, Vietnam’s population growth rate has decreased sharply, from a very high level of 3.9% (in 1960) to 1.14% (2019) and 0.95% (2021).
Children at a kindergarten in Korea. Photo: Pexel
Tomas Sobotka, a researcher at the Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Resources and deputy director of the Vienna Demographic Institute, said global population growth will continue to slow. Global fertility halved between 1950 and 2021, from 4.83 to 2.23. The latest projections show that by 2050, the figure will fall to 1.59 to 2.08, then further to 1.25 to 1.96 by 2100. The fertility rate needed to maintain it is 2.1.
According to some experts, the shrinking of the world’s population needs to be viewed more openly. Low birth rates can be seen as a sign of success. Researchers say that when societies are stable and the economy is doing well, the ability to care for the elderly is increased. The number of couples trying to have children to care for them in their old age is reduced. This is a long-established theory called the demographic transition.
Sarah Harper, director of the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, advises that rather than focusing on reversing population decline, countries should learn to live with it. This means that in the long term, they will need to find solutions to ensure that their workforce continues to grow.