Experts predict that if the birth rate continues to decline as it is now without any solutions to improve it, in the next 35 years, Vietnam’s population will experience negative growth.
The issue was raised by scientists and managers at a workshop on solutions to prevent low birth rates on August 28. Vietnam’s birth rate is at a “worrying level”, with a tendency to fall below the replacement level.
The total fertility rate in 2023 nationwide is 1.96 children/woman, the lowest ever and is forecast to continue to decrease in the following years. The ideal replacement fertility rate is 2.1 children/woman.
Mr. Pham Vu Hoang, Deputy Director of the Department of Population, Ministry of Health, said that the average population of our country in 2023 is estimated to reach 100.3 million people, an increase of nearly 835,000 people. In the 10 years from 2013 to 2023, Vietnam’s population increased by an average of about one million people each year. Vietnam is the third most populous country in Southeast Asia, after Indonesia and the Philippines, and ranks 15th in the world.
“However, the population growth rate has gradually decreased and is forecast to continue to decrease,” Mr. Hoang said, citing the continuous decrease in population growth rate from 1.7% in 1999 to 1.14% in 2019 and 0.85% in 2023.
The General Statistics Office forecasts that in the medium fertility scenario, by 2069, Vietnam’s average population growth rate will be zero. In the low fertility scenario, in 35 years, Vietnam will face a negative population growth rate. On the contrary, if the replacement fertility rate remains stable throughout the forecast period, our country’s population will still increase slightly, at a rate of 0.17%, equivalent to 200,000 people per year.
Two elderly people exercise at West Lake, Hanoi. Photo:Tung Dinh
Experts say that a prolonged low birth rate leaves many consequences, including a decline in population size, a shortage of labor, increased migration to meet production and development needs, and accelerated population aging…
The causes of low birth rates are education, improved living conditions, and a desire to enjoy life. In addition, there is economic pressure, the cost of raising and caring for children; the increasing trend of abortion and infertility rates. In this context, experts say that there needs to be a sustainable development policy that creates conditions for couples to have children.
For example, Associate Professor Nguyen Duc Vinh, Director of the Institute of Sociology, Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, said that according to a survey, 80% of 1,200 women (aged 18 to 35) in 4 provinces with low birth rates, Khanh Hoa, Ho Chi Minh City, Soc Trang and Ca Mau, want to have 2 children. However, there are many factors that hinder this desired birth rate, such as high costs, lack of good parenting conditions, poor health, unsuitable jobs for having more children, taking too much time and effort, and no one to support and care for them.
“Despite many barriers, most families still want to have two children. Therefore, implementing a birth promotion policy is not easy but feasible. The important thing is to have support policies,” said Mr. Vinh.
To avoid a sharp decline in the birth rate, according to Mr. Vinh, the basic strategy is to popularize and maintain the two-child family standard in society. Encourage and create maximum conditions for families to realize their desire to have two children.
Regarding solutions, it is necessary to create a friendly and favorable environment for marriage, childbirth and child-rearing; consider supporting birth promotion and other social security policies; mobilize many resources and the participation of the whole society. At the same time, focus on prevention, testing and treatment of infertility.