Why Bayern’s dream of a “finale at home” could burst today

Bayern are under pressure in the Champions League against Benfica Lisbon. A win is mandatory, otherwise the dream of the “final at home” could be dashed early on

There is already pressure on the Munich team Champions-League-Kessel.

The Portuguese was born in Lisbon and used to play for Sporting there João Palhinha explained what was a “very special game” for him against his city rivals Benfica even to “a finale” for the FC Bayern. And that 206 days before the actual premier class final in the Allianz Arena in Munich, where Palhinha and his colleagues absolutely want to be on the pitch.

The fact is: After the away defeats against Aston Villa (0:1) and the FC Barcelona (1:4) is at least the direct one for Bayern in the new league system Round of 16 qualification in acute danger. “We have to win all the games,” is the projection Joshua Kimmich before the first of five preliminary round games on Wednesday (9 p.m./Sky).

In or out

In the Bundesliga Bayern are first. In Europe Premier class but they are in 23rd place after three match days.

That would be just enough for the additional one Knockout round in February 2025. Then the clubs in places nine to 24 will determine the remaining round of 16 participants in the first and second legs.

As of now that would mean: England’s top club FC Arsenal (9th place) or again FC Barcelona (10th) with an ex-coach Hansi Flick would be the opponent of Munich.

Not a rosy outlook. But coach Vincent Kompany avoids any scaremongering. “Every game at FC Bayern brings pressure,” said the Belgian with a laugh. “My focus is not on the pressure. It’s not about staying in the Champions League or being eliminated against Benfica. The pressure for a place in the top 8 is always there in the new format. But in or out – that’s not true.”

In computer simulations it has been calculated that 17 points are always enoughto finish in the top eight. 16 points should be enough for 98 percent. Bayern have three. That means: In the five remaining games against Benfica, Paris Saint-Germain (H), Shakhtar Donetsk (A), Feyenoord Rotterdam (A) and Slavic Bratislava (H) a winning streak is necessary.

Audience joker

Four wins and a draw should be enough for the “goal of getting into the top eight,” as Bayern boss put it Jan-Christian Dreesen after the removal in Barcelona. Manuel Neuer counters all negative scenarios with a psychological trick. The captain simply relies on home strength. “We are looking forward to the second home game in the Champions League. Against Dinamo Things went very well here at home. “We won clearly and clearly and showed a good performance,” he said, recalling the furious 9-2 win against Zagreb. “That’s how we go into the game and try to bring that to the pitch against Benfica.”

Sports Director Max Eberl also draws the audience joker. “We have now had two complicated away games, both of which we lost. So we now have pressure against Benfica. But on the other hand, we have our spectators behind us in the Allianz Arena. And we have already shown that we can develop even more strength and energy. We want to win the game,” explained Eberl.

The chances are good against 13th place in the table. Bayern have never lost against Benfica (9 wins, 3 draws). The last duel in Munich in 2021 ended 5-2. Added to this is the boost from the three clear clean sheets from last week. The offensive around goal scorers Harry Kane, Jamal Musiala and Kingsley Coman is in really good shape at the moment, there was zero at the back three times.