Dinamo’s chances of advancing to the Champions League are bright. How many points will it take? Here’s what the statistics say

There are few who dared to predict a positive result for Dinamo against Borussia Dortmund, especially after the absence of five first-team players (Nevistić, Sučić, Ademi, Mišić, Petković). The current runner-up of Europe won 3-0 at Maksimir and continued the black streak of “blue” against German clubs since independence. In the eighth game, they suffered as many defeats. Borussia, on the other hand, ended an incredible streak of six away defeats that lasted more than two months.

Dinamo is still in a good position in terms of chances for the second round. There are still three rounds left until the end of the league phase of the elite European club competition, one before the Christmas-New Year break and two more in the second half of September. In the rankings, Dinamo is 23rd, in the penultimate place that brings the knockout phase (and ahead of Real Madrid) with seven points. If this phase were to end today, the “Blues” would be in the last 16 against Sporting, who lost to Arsenal (5-1) at home on Wednesday.

Statistički Elo model of the Croatian platform Football meets data based on 10,000 simulations, he says that Dinamo has 45 place to advance to the next round, according to the projections, he is not in there yet (26th place). This is a drop of 12 percent and one place compared to the last round, when he won against Slovan in Bratislava. And yet, he still has a 10 percent more chance to advance than after the ž draw, and especially after the 9-2 in Munich (25 percent) and the draw with Monaco (20 percent). In the case of success in the remaining three matches, Dinamo would have a great chance to advance among the top eight and go directly to the round of 16, and the chances for that are only 0.3 percent.

Bookmakers estimated Dinamo’s chances for the Top 24 at coefficient 2.1which is 47.6 percent. Some go up to the quota of 1.83 or 54.6 percent. In other words, passing and relegation are equally likely. But that largely depends on the result of the next game against Celtic on December 10 in Zagreb, because the “Blues” will be outsiders against both Arsenal (January 22) and Milan (January 29).

How many points will be needed for the second round? If they stay at these seven, Dinamo has only a 0.3 percent chance of advancing, but a bad goal difference (currently -5) could be a big weight for them, even in the case of a higher number of points. Eight points means an 11 percent chance for the Top 24, with nine points it increases to 46 percent, and even with ten points, in case of victory over Celtic, Dinamo will not be safe (87 percent). Only 12 points means absolute mathematical certainty that you are in, and 11 in only 0.2 percent of situations will not be enough.

Dinamo’s chances for the knockout phase of the Champions League