Semifinals of the Africa Cup: Favorites live instead of dying favorites

ZWill Morocco also reach the final of the Africa Cup of Nations against Nigeria on Wednesday? People who study probabilities in football have a clear bias on this question. Morocco, Qatar’s fourth-placed team in the World Cup, is blessed with home advantage as hosts of the tournament. This is also why the bookmakers had given the North Africans the best chance of winning the title before the tournament started. Toni Kroos even sees them as an insider tip for the World Cup title in the summer. The Moroccans have lived up to expectations so far at the Africa Cup, having only conceded one goal in a 1-1 draw against Mali in the preliminary round. The team won all other games with players like Achraf Hakimi from Paris Saint-Germain, Brahim Díaz from Real Madrid and Stuttgart’s Bilal El Khannouss.

But the circumstances surrounding Morocco’s entry into the semi-finals are viewed critically by the other teams. German coach Gernot Rohr, who was just eliminated with Benin in the round of 16 against Egypt, put it succinctly. In an interview with Deutschlandfunk, he said that Morocco was definitely the top favorite because it had a “great team,” because the “whole country was excited,” and “because they also have certain advantages as hosts.” Rohr doesn’t just mean the support of the fans in the stadiums. The climate is an issue that is different in North Africa than in the western or southern part of the continent. And the referees would sometimes “show a bit of sympathy” for Morocco.

A little sympathy? In fact, there is a proven refereeing advantage for home teams. In a 2002 study, British researchers found that referees can be influenced in their decisions by the shouts, whistles and boos of home fans, especially if they are inexperienced.

But there was also one or two solid discussions about the role of the referees. In any case, before Morocco’s quarter-final game against Cameroon, the referee was changed quite spontaneously. The Moroccan association had complained that the Egyptian Amin Omar should whistle. Officially, because the appointment was made too late. Instead, Mauritanian Dahane Beida whistled. Cameroon allegedly only found out about this shortly before via social media. Association boss Samuel Eto’o clearly criticized this. The VAR was also replaced. Morocco is said to have not agreed to an Algerian sitting in front of the screens. There are political tensions with the neighboring country. The organizing African association, the Confédération Africaine de Football (CAF), then appointed the Ghanaian Daniel Laryea.

The whole story served as a perfect template for Cameroon striker Bryan Mbeumo. The attacker, otherwise under contract with Manchester United, really wanted a penalty in the 69th minute. When the score was 0-1, he fell to the ground after slight contact. After the game, he said the contact was clearly visible in the footage and he didn’t know what else to say about it. However, the images suggest that Mbuemo may well have wanted the touch. On the other hand, either referee Beida or VAR Laryea should have seen the foul by ex-Frankfurt player Dina Ebimbe on Moroccan Abde Ezzalzouli in the 36th minute. This did not result in an advantage for the host on the part of the referees. Especially since Cameroon didn’t manage a shot on the Moroccan goal in 90 minutes.

But Rohr also argues that there are logistical advantages for the host. Morocco plays all of its Africa Cup of Nations games in the 68,000-seat final stadium “Stade Moulay Abdallah” in Rabat. The situation is similar for the other semi-finalists. Egypt has played all its games at the same stadium in Agadir. Senegal was only in Tangier and Nigeria had to go from Fes to Marrakesh for the quarter-finals. For Gernot Rohr, this is an advantage for large nations. “The little ones have to travel four times for four games, the big ones always play in the same stadium.” In addition, you are no longer allowed to train in the stadium the day before, which further increases the advantage of having already played in the stadium. In fact, Rohr’s young Benin team has been in a different stadium for every game. In the round of 16, Benin were eliminated in Agadir, in Egypt’s “home stadium” so to speak. “It wasn’t always fair for the smaller countries,” criticizes Rohr.

In fact, Senegal, Mali, Cameroon, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Algeria and Ivory Coast were in the quarterfinals – the eight nations that were rated as the strongest before the tournament. Favorite life instead of favorite death.

The Egyptians around Liverpool striker Mo Salah now have to travel for the first time for the semi-finals. It goes to the 68,000-seat “Grand Stade” in Tangier. On Wednesday evening at 6 p.m. the opponent is Senegal with former Liverpool and Bayern striker Sadio Mané. Three hours later, Morocco welcomes the team from Nigeria, of course at the “Moulay Abdallah” in Rabat. The referee of the game is Daniel Laryea, the VAR of the Cameroon game.